Soyuz docked with the ISS, in a photo taken during Monday's spacewalk. Credit: NASA
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International Space Station Expedition 18 commander Mike Fincke and flight engineer Yury Lonchakov, conducted a five-hour 38-minute spacewalk on Dec. 23, successfully installing an electrical probe on the Russian Pirs airlock module designed to track down problems with Russian Soyuz capsule. They also retrieved a space exposure experiment and mounted instrumentation on the Zvezda command module that will monitor disturbances in the ionosphere. But the spacewalkers encountered problems with a second experiment package, designed to expose biological samples to the space environment, to properly plug into the station’s power and data system. After extensive troubleshooting, Russian flight controllers ordered Fincke and Lonchakov to disconnect the Expose-R experiment and return it to the airlock.
Russian scientists hope data from the probe installed by Fincke will help explain malfunctions that have occurred as the Soyuz crew return module has attempted to separate from the space station.
During the past two re-entries through Earth’s atmosphere in April of this year and October 2007, the Soyuz descended too steeply, leading to faster and bumpier-than-usual rides for the crews and off-target landings.
Investigators believe the Soyuz capsule detached too late because a pyrobolt — an exploding connector that keeps the module attached to the space station — failed to detonate on time.
Much of the spacewalk was devoted to arranging connectors and cables for various probes and experiments, and ensuring the reliability of telemetry from the data-gathering equipment.
Yury Lonchakov during the Dec. 23 spacewalk. Credit: NASA
Fincke and Lonchakov discovered a problem with the data transmission of a device they installed on a small platform outside the station’s Zvezda module. The European Space Agency experiment was supposed to gather data on the effects of the space environment on a variety of materials.
They successfully placed another device on the same platform to measure the plasma environment around the station. The pair also removed a biological experiment known as Biorisk 2, which exposes biological samples to space.
It was Fincke’s fifth spacewalk, Lonchakov’s first and the 119th spacewalk conducted from the international space station. During the spacewalk, Fincke said in Russian. “It’s good to be out here again.”
U.S. Flight Engineer Sandy Magnus, the third member of the station’s Expedition 18, was inside the station helping coordinate the mission with centers in Houston and in Korolyov, Russia.
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A coalition of leaders working on the concept of a space elevator has joined forces to form the International Space Elevator Consortium (ISEC). The new independent group is designed to promote standards and foster research relating to the construction of an Elevator to Space at the global level. Founding members of ISEC include the Spaceward Foundation, the Space Elevator Reference, the Space Elevator Blog, EuroSpaceward and the Japan Space Elevator Association. Heading the new organization is Ted Semon of the Space Elevator Blog, who will serve as president. Michael Laine, president of the space elevator company Liftport is excited about the consortium. “I think it’s a great thing,” he said. “This has been in the works for months, and the need to bring the different organizations under one roof has been long overdue. All five of the major organizations have been acting independently, which made sense in the beginning, but now we need coordination and cooperation.”
“The Space Elevator is a project whose time has come,” said Semon. “With the challenges facing today’s global economy, it is clear that new industries and new ideas are needed to help our planet in the 21st Century. The Space Elevator can be a key positive contributor, from providing inexpensive nanotechnology material science breakthroughs that will make your car stronger and lighter, to the creation of new industries that offer opportunities for investment and job creation. The International Space Elevator Consortium devoted to its development can make this happen.”
According to the Consortium, the goal of ISEC is to promote the development, construction and operation of the Space Elevator as a revolutionary and efficient way to space for all humanity. The group will accomplish this through these key areas:
• Development of a unified plan and roadmap for the Space Elevator and the coordinated assignment of specific research topics
• Funding of research on technologies relevant to the Space Elevator
• Development of the international legal framework necessary for the operation of the Space Elevator
• Global public outreach and central information exchange on Space Elevator activities
“In the past, some things fell through the cracks because no one knew what anyone else was working on,” said Laine. “Some needed tasks didn’t get done because everyone assumed that someone else was working on it. What we’re going to do with the consortium is refine the tasks, and have a better coordinated effort.”
Laine is very excited about upcoming projects for the consortium, to be announced in the next few weeks. “They’ve got some good things coming,” he said. ISEC will be unveiling additional plans and details, including a board of directors, technical journals, university and industry relationships, research opportunities and scholarships. Memberships will be available on the individual, corporate, academic and governmental levels.
The ISEC is headquartered in the Los Angeles area, a center of the aerospace industry. The consortium is a non-profit organization devoted to the research and construction of an elevator to space. See the ISEC website for more information.
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In preparation of celebrating Spirit and Opportunity’s fifth anniversary on Mars in January, we’ve been talking with rover driver Scott Maxwell, getting updates on the two Mars Exploration Rovers and learning about what it really is like to drive the rovers. Today, Scott will share some of the highlights of the past five years, and his outlook for the future. But first, in the latest updates from Scott via Twitter, he says Spirit tried to back-up off of ‘Home Plate’ but encountered quite a bit of slippage. It looks like she’ll probably end up driving forward and taking the long way around the low plateau to the next target objects, a hill called Von Braun, and a crater-like feature nearby called Goddard. Meanwhile, Opportunity is studying “cobbles” or loose rocks at a region called Santorini, where she has been stationed during solar conjunction. Now that radio transmissions are improving, Oppy will start receiving commands from the rover drivers to hit the road again. The image above is a panoramic image of Santorini, put together by James Canvin at his website, Martian Vistas.
Scott has actually been with the MER mission for longer than just the five years since the rovers landed. He joined the team early on, about three-and-a-half years before the rovers launched. He was part of the development team, helping to write the software used to drive the rovers. Back then, did he ever fathom the rovers would last this long?
How to Drive a Mars Rover, Part 1 How to Drive a Mars Rover, Part 2
“I think back, to that time, and we did all that work where we sat in our cubicles, had meetings and argued with each other about the best way to program the software,” said Scott. “We slaved away working on the mission, never knowing if the mission would succeed or not. We did all that work just for the chance, the hope, that the rovers would be working on Mars for three months. And it was worth it.”
The rover planners include Rich Morris, Scott Maxwell, Sharon Laubach, Joseph Carsten, John Wright and Brian Cooper; and (front row) Tara Estlin, Paolo Bellutta and Ashley Stroupe. Credit: PBS
“And then to do all that work and have the rovers on Mars for five years, it’s like you’re playing a slot machine and you put in your quarter and pull the lever, and not only do a few quarters come out, they keep coming and coming and coming, and it fills up your cup, and overflows. That’s what it’s like to work on this mission.”
OK, Scott, now we want to know the highlights for you from the past five years. Certainly there’s at least one or two memorable moments!
“Certainly for me, there are two things I think of,” Scott said. “One is the first time I ever drove the rover. There was the period early on where we lost contact with Spirit. But then we were able to recover her. But that was a month into the mission where we thought it was only going to last three months, and it delayed the time until I got my first chance to drive her.”
“I still remember the day. We planned and planned and rehearsed the drive. I checked over the sequence a million times before sending it. Then I went home and I should have gone to sleep, but I couldn’t. I just laid there in my bed and stared at the ceiling, and couldn’t get past the thought that right then, at that moment, there was a robot on another planet, doing what I had told it to do. It was just an awesome feeling to imagine that, and that feeling has never left me. I still feel like that every time I drive the rover.”
Scott says it’s an incredible feeling to go outside and look up and see Mars in the sky, and on that red dot way out there is an object, placed there by humans, and humans are telling it what to do. “And I’m one of the people doing that. It’s an absolutely amazing feeling. I feel that way all the time.” Scott Maxwell, rover driver. Image courtesy Scott Maxwell
Its obvious Scott has a soft spot in his heart for Spirit, as another memorable aspect of the mission involves her, too. Scott tells the story so well and with such passion, I’ll just let him go:
“The other thing I always think about is that Spirit travels the 300 million miles to Mars, she gets to Mars, drives off the lander, and she’s gone all that way with the hope of finding evidence of past liquid water on Mars,” Scott said. “But instead, when she drives around, there’s nothing: just lava as far as the eye can see. She drives around the area and looks at rocks, and then drives over to Bonnevillle crater, which is her best chance of finding evidence of liquid water, thinking maybe if she goes down far enough into this crater there will be something there, but there’s nothing.”
“But way off in the east, there are a range of hills, the Columbia Hills, and (principal investigator) Steve Squyres says clearly the hills may be too far for us to get to, but maybe we can get some images that can tell us something. But Spirit takes off for those hills anyway, even though they are too far away, and never gives up and gets there; she actually makes it all the way to the bottom of the hills.”
“And then,” Scott continued, “she’s at the bottom of the hill, looking up at them, and it’s now twice as long as she should have survived and she has driven three times as far as she was supposed to be able to drive, and she’s tired and her wheels are sore, now is when the real challenge will begin. Now she won’t just be driving over flat terrain, like she was meant to drive on. She’s going to have to climb the hill, which is taller than the Statue of Liberty, and everyone thinks it’s way too tall for this poor little rover to climb. But she does it anyway.”
“She starts climbing up the hill and there are times when she can’t make any progress, so we have to turn her around and give up some of the altitude she’s won and go back and find another path, but she never gives up and goes all the way to the top of that hill that was just impossibly far away when she started.” A special effect image of Spirit sitting on Husband Hill. Credit: NASA/JPL/Cornell. Rover model by Dan Maas
“When we came into work that day and we saw that image of Spirit standing on top of Husband Hill with the beautiful panorama of the world around her –she stood there for a long time and took the images of the area around her — to me, that’s one of the achievements, not just of this mission, but of engineering excellence in our whole civilization, to be able to do that. To be able to go so far and do so many impossible things, that image just says all of that for me. I know what it took to get there and be able to take that image, and I feel the pride of being part of the team that made it happen. It is just an amazing experience.”
As incredible as the MER mission has been, we all know the rovers won’t last forever. Someday – and we don’t know when – the rovers will eventually quit working. It’s hard to think about life without the rovers, but has Scott given any thought to what mission he would like to work on next?
“It’s all downhill from here!” Scott laughed. “But, really there’s a lot of cool and exciting stuff going on at JPL. We’ve got another rover we’re working on, the Mars Science Laboratory, and I’ve been working on that. I’m also involved with ATHLETE, which is a 12-ft. tall six legged robot spider on roller skates that we are going to send to the moon. There’s always so much like that going on here at JPL, it’s just like being an engineer in Disneyland. You come to work and say, ‘What cool stuff can I work on today?’ It’s just awesome, and there’s just no end to it.”
Scott says he has nothing against orbiter missions, but to be honest they’re not top on his list. “I’m not putting them down,” he said, “but orbiters don’t really float my boat. I kind of get into rovers, I kind of relate to them, in a way. But you look at a mission like Cassini and it’s amazing! Cassini is finding liquid water spewing out of Enceladus, and dropping a probe onto Titan and getting the first view beneath the thick clouds that cover that moon! It’s just amazing stuff. So even though orbiters aren’t my thing, I might end up on one of them, too, you never know.”
Scott has definitely shown his worth with the rovers, so, even though the MSL launch has slipped to 2011, the rover fans out there are secretly hoping Scott will have a place on the MSL team when the time comes. Spirit heading off into the sunset. Special effects image by NASA/JPL/Cornell
But in the meantime, Spirit and Opportunity, the Energizer Bunnies of Mars exploration keep going and roving, and sending back loads of data and images.
Dust storm on Mars. Image credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS
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What an incredible image of a storm on Mars! The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter’s main assignment is to study the surface of the Red Planet, looking for clues about the history of water on Mars. But while photographing, analyzing and mapping, it also spends time each day pursuing intense weather on Mars. Sometimes, MRO is able to capture a storm in action, as in the above image of a dust front rising from a network of canyons. Often, the storms are spirals like giant tornadoes on Earth, sometimes forming huge fronts of churning dust like the “dust bowl” of the 1930s in the US. While we sometimes think of Mars as an almost “dead” world, there’s a lot of action going on in the atmosphere, and MRO is always searching for the Perfect Storm!
Dust storms on Mars are catalysts for cloud formation. The storms lift dust particles high into the atmosphere, and the particles serve as seeds for water-ice cloud formation. Water ice condenses onto the dust particles to form wispy, white clouds. Daily variations in Mars’ atmosphere are quite large, in part because there is no ocean, which serves as large heat storage capacity on the surface. The ground warms up quickly during the day and cools off equally as quick at night. Daily temperature variations of 100 C (180 F) are common, and that cycle of heating and cooling is reflected in atmospheric variations. “That energy propagates up, and when integrated to the high altitudes, it can make a big difference from day to night in the densities that we saw at a given altitude,” said MRO Project Scientist Richard Zurek. Storms as seen by the Mars Color Imager. Image credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS
These images show whirlwinds on top of volcanoes. Thin veils of icy clouds dissipate into the atmosphere above the dust plumes. The orbiter has discovered that smaller storms on Mars can feed into larger storms. Dust devils seen by the HiRISE camera. Credit: NASA/JPL/University of Arizona
And of course, dust devils on Mars are a common occurrence in several areas, as they have been photographed by both the Mars Exploration Rovers, as well as Phoenix.
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Bright, flashing lights and a driving, vibrant sound track do wonders for video games. Similar dynamism brings home the worth of scientific exploration as seen in the History Channel’s “The Universe – Season One” on disc. Whether watching the debris from colliding asteroids as it flow into the rings of Uranus or seeing geysers spewing from Enceladus, there’s action a plenty in this video set.
Joining this quick paced action are facts and details that brings lots of science to the viewers. With careful juxtaposition, calm researchers provide clear reasoning on why clashing, spewing, whirling marvels exist. As the researchers all appear to be at the top of their respective scientific fields, their words add the weight to keep the shows grounded. Whether debating the planet-ness of Pluto, explaining the volcanoes of Titan or discussing how best to detect ET’s communication, they provide insight for the viewer to appreciate the novelty of the subject and the value of their research efforts. Further, by showing how the scientists accomplish their tasks, albeit briefly, these shows may be just the hook needed to draw students into a worthwhile, long-term career in science.
But, where the bright lights and near continuous sound track should attract the younger set, they may do the opposite for those appreciating a more sedate viewing experience. As well, it’s best to not watch shows one after another, as the viewer will start to see repetitious images and presentation styles. Also, there are times when the narration gives the impression of fact when there isn’t a definitive consensus in the scientific community. Therefore, enjoy the visuals and appreciate the hard work of the interviewees. But be prudent while watching and keep in mind that we’re still at the beginning of the learning curve when it comes to understanding the universe.
Yet, the average person’s knowledge doesn’t extend much past what they can directly see and feel. Thus, playing this 12 hour video set or even a selection or two may be just the ticket to expanding their awareness. After all, humanity’s survival is incredibly dependent upon a docile universe as shown by the impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy upon Jupiter or the possible devastation that a neutron star would wreck upon Earth. The contents of History Channel’s season one “The Universe – Explore the Edges of the Unknown” (available in Blu-ray) can help set the hazard record straight and readily expand a viewer’s horizons.
It’s hard to explain what the atmosphere of Jupiter is, since the planet is 90% hydrogen and 10% helium. Here on Earth, we’d consider those gasses all atmosphere. But under its strong gravity, Jupiter pulls together this atmosphere into separate layers with very interesting properties. Let’s take a look at the atmosphere of Jupiter.
Unlike Earth, Jupiter has no clear boundary between its atmosphere and the rest of the planet. As you travel down through the planet, the density and temperature of hydrogen and helium change, and scientists have defined different layers based on those changes. The atmospheric layers on Jupiter are the troposphere, stratosphere, thermosphere and exosphere.
As Jupiter lacks a solid surface, scientists define the bottom of its atmosphere at the point where the pressure is 1 bar; the atmosphere is above this point. As with Earth, the temperature of Jupiter’s atmosphere decreases with height until it reaches a minimum. This is the tropopause, and defines the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere – it’s about 50 km above the “surface” of Jupiter.
The stratosphere rises to an altitude of 320 km, and the pressure continues to decrease, while temperatures increase. This altitude marks the boundary between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. The temperature of the thermosphere rises up to 1000 K at an altitude of 1000 km.
All of the clouds and storms that we can see are located at the bottom of Jupiter’s troposphere, and they’re formed from ammonia, hydrogen sulfide and water. The top cloud layer contains ammonia ice. Below this are clouds made of ammonium hydrosulfide. Water clouds form down at the densest layer of clouds.
Scott Maxwell, using his 3-D simulation software. Courtesy Scott Maxwell
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The Mars Exploration Rovers have been traversing the surface of the Red Planet for almost five years now. But how exactly are the two rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, “driven” from Earth, about 150 million km away? Many of us might have visions of joysticks, similar to what are used for remote control toys, but it’s not like that at all. However, being a “Rover Driver” is one job where having experience with video games and simulation software looks good your resume! Scott Maxwell is one of fourteen rover drivers, or planners as they are also called, who last week gave us an update on Spirit and Opportunity’s status. Today, Scott provides the details of how to drive a Mars rover.
“The way we wished it would work,” said Scott in a phone interview from JPL, “is if we could have a joystick where if we pushed forward on the joystick the rover would go forward, or push back and the rover would stop. But, with lag time delays in the radio signals, you would push forward on the joystick and 10 minutes later the rover would get the signal to go. But on Earth, you won’t know if it worked for another 10 minutes after that because of the time it takes for the signal to get back to you.”
This would create a nightmare in logistics, planning and operations, because the drivers can’t “see” what the rover is doing in real time. So instead, the rover drivers work the Martian nightshift. Recent view from Opportunity's hazard camera. Credit: NASA/JPL/Cornell
“We take advantage that our solar powered rovers have to shut down for the night,” said Scott. “So as the sun is going down in the Martian sky, the rover is commanded to take pictures of the world around them and send it before they go to sleep. When we get that data back on Earth, we go to work. We take all the images and put them into a simulation. We have a 3-D simulation world — kind of like a video game — on our computers. Then, we have a simulated rover that we put down in that 3-D world and we drive that rover around instead.”
So in that 3-D world, the rover drivers can test every possibility, make all the mistakes (tip the rover, get stuck, drive off a precipice, crash into a big rock) and perfect the driving sequence while the real rovers are dozing securely and peacefully. This certainly has helped with the long life the rovers have led, as in five years the rover drivers have safely and successfully guided the rovers to drive in and out of craters, climb a challenging hill, and put on more mileage than anyone ever thought possible. The biggest driving calamity has been getting stuck in a sand dune, but now the driving team has a few tricks up their sleeves to avoid that (see Part 1).
So then, when the drivers perfect the commands inside the simulation and hone the exact sequence of movements for the rover, they upload those commands and send it to the real rover. Then as the sun is coming up on Mars, the rover wakes up, receives a communications uplink from Earth, processes the commands and it goes to work while the rover drivers go to sleep. “At the end of the rover’s day, it sends us more pictures and data, and we start the cycle all over again,” Scott said. Rover test bed. Credit: JPL
If there’s a particularly difficult situation, such as how much tilt can the rover withstand without tipping over, a test rover can go through the same sequences in a simulated Mars environment out in JPL’s Mars Yard.
Back in 2004 during the “prime mission,” the first three months of the mission (the original length of time the rovers were slated to last) everyone who worked with MER lived on Mars time. Since the two rovers are on opposite sides of the planet, that meant operations going on 24 hours a day. And since a Mars day is 40 minutes longer than Earth’s day, that meant a perpetually shifting sleep/wake cycle, a difficult situation where your body continually feels “jet-lagged.” But now that the mission has been ongoing for such a long time, the planners operate in a more Earth-normal mode and even take some weekends off. But still, a planner’s eight- hour shift can start anywhere from 6:00 a.m. to noon.
So what’s an average drive for the rovers? “It varies widely,” Scott said, “but an average drive is in the neighborhood of a few meters.” Right now Spirit is struggling her way up the side of “Home Plate,” a low plateau, which for a rover is a steep hill. The crumbly soil gives out beneath her wheels as she makes the climb, making it difficult to drive father than a few centimeters in a day. Plus, Spirit is dealing with low power levels from dust-covered solar panels, providing limited energy for any big drives. Just after a recent dust storm, Spirit’s solar panels were producing only 89 watt hours, which is about the energy needed to run a small light bulb for an hour and half. Spirit's dusty solar panels. Credit: NASA/JP
But Opportunity’s power levels are much better, and she recently had drives as long as 216 meters, as she puts the pedal to the metal in an attempt to reach Endeavour Crater, about 12 km away.
Some of the rover drivers work mainly with one rover (Steve Squyres has said it’s easy to get attached to one rover or the other, depending which one you’re working with) but Scott goes back and forth between the two. “That’s in part because I’m a team lead, and part because I’m the kind of person who wants to run around and be part of everything all the time!” he said. When we talked with Scott last week, he was working with Spirit, and thought that this week he will probably do a drive or two with Opportunity.
Currently Spirit’s total odometry is at about 7,530 meters (over 4.6 miles), while Opportunity’s odometer reads almost 14,000 meters (about 9 miles).
WhiteKnightTwo at liftoff. Credit: FlightGlobal.com
Virgin Galactic’s WhiteKnightTwo (WK2) made its first test flight on Sunday, Dec. 21, a 59min shakedown flight of the twin fuselage aircraft at the Mojave Air and Space Port in California. WK2 climbed to a maximum altitude of 16,000ft (4,880m). “It reached an altitude 4,000ft above the original test plan’s maximum altitude,” said Virgin Galactic president Will Whitehorn. “That is how confident we are about the aircraft. Now we have to download all the data. There will be another flight early in the new year.” WK2 will carry Virgin’s SpaceShipTwo, the space plane that will bring passengers on suborbital flights, hopefully by 2011. FlightGlobal.com obtained exclusive video of the test flight, which can be viewed here.
The hour-long test flight of the four-engine WhiteKnightTwo used a skeleton flight crew. Previously last week, WK2 was taken out for four runs down the runway and a brief lifting of the nose gear on Dec. 20, and low-speed trips down the runway on Dec. 16 and 12.
Both WK2 and SS2 are being built by Scaled Composites of Mojave, CA, and Virgin Galactic has five SS2 rocket planes and two of the carrier crafts on order, with options on more. The WK2/SS2 combination will serve as the backbone for Sir Richard Branson’s suborbital spaceline company. The price per seat on the two pilot/six passenger suborbital SS2 is $200,000.
[/caption]The size of Mars can not be given in one set of numbers. Scientists describe a planet by many factors. First there is radius, for Mars that is 3,389.5 km. Its circumference is 21,344 km. Next is volume, which is 1.63116 X 1011 km3. Last is Mar’s mass at 6.4169 x 1023 kg.
For comparison, Mars has 53% of the diameter of Earth. It has about 38% of the surface area of Earth. That sounds small, but that is equal to the total dry land here on Earth. The volume of Mars is equal to 15% of Earth’s and the Red Planet’s mass is 11% of Earth’s. As you can see, Mars is a small world, the second smallest in the Solar System.
Despite its small size, Mars has many interesting features that would seem larger than life. Olympus Mons is the tallest mountain in the Solar System and Valles Marineris is the deepest valley. Mars is home to hundreds of thousands of impact craters. Northern Polar Basin-Borealis Basin is largest at 10,500 km and Hellas Basin at 2,100 km is the third largest.
In addition to the extremes in topography, Mars is a world of weather extremes. Overall, it is a very cold world with an average surface temperature of about -47°C. During the summer, near the equator the temperatures can reach nearly 20°C during the day, but drop to -90°C at night. That 110° change in temperature can drive winds that reach tornado speeds. Once these winds start, they pick up the iron oxide dust that covers the planet, turning into a dust storm. There have been dust storms on Mars that have gotten large enough to engulf the entire planet for days at a time.
Scientists believe that Mars was a larger planet early in the history of the Solar System. The impact that created the Northern Polar Basin-Borealis Basin would have been large enough to eject a portion of the planet into space and beyond its gravitational pull; thus, the planet may have lost part of itself from the crash.
As you can see, the size of Mars is a minor fact amongst all of the interesting facts that you can discover about the Red Planet, but, hopefully, it is enough to get you to do more research.
Want information on other planets? Here’s an article about the size of Jupiter, and here’s one on the size of Saturn.
[/caption]According to 2012 doomsday proponents, something big is out to get us. By “something big” I mean some uncontrollable cosmic entity (i.e. Planet X, Nibiru or a “killer” solar flare), and by “us” I mean the whole of planet Earth. Pinning 2012 doomsday scenarios on the end of the ancient Mayan “Long Count” calendar appears to be growing momentum amongst authors, websites, documentaries and (my personal favourite) YouTube videos. According to them, something bad is going to happen on or around December 21st 2012. Probably the most interesting difference between the 2012 doomsday scenario and the doomsday prophecies of the past is that almost every possible (and impossible… or implausible) harbinger of doom is being suggested as a planet killer.
So, in this sixth article addressing another astronomical doomsday scenario, I will look at the theory that there is a comet currently out there in deep space, slowly making its final approach on its parabolic orbit toward Earth. But before you get worried, you’ll be glad to hear that the 2012 cometary impact theory is as watertight as a teabag; there is no object observed out there and there is certainly no evidence to suggest there could be a comet impact in 2012… and here’s why…
Marketing Doomsday
In four years today (2012 21-December), the world will be coming to an end according to a few misguided individuals. Doomsayers always begin their arguments using an ancient calendar (plus a heavy dose of Bible Codes, I Ching and ancient Sumerian cuneiform scriptures) to support their new and inventive way the world may end. Alas, most doomsday theories are based on over-hyped scientific misinterpretation and outright lies. Usually there is a book to sell or website to promote. After all, there is nothing more profitable than fear.
Interestingly, I started writing for the Universe Today a year ago today, exactly five years before the end of the Mayan Long Count calendar. Don’t go reading too much into this little fact, pure coincidence, but I think it would be fitting to write the sixth in my series of 2012 articles exposing the myths surrounding this date.
You’ve probably seen the prolific ads for the “2012 Comet” across a range of websites, so I decided to delve into this particular theory to see if there is any truth behind the claims that a comet (or “comet planet”) is approaching Earth on a collision course. To cut a long story short, I can categorically say that no cometary impact is imminent. Any accusations of government cover-ups are to hide the poor science doomsayers are citing (much like the Planet X/Nibiru connection). If you want the long story, read on…
The Comet Threat NASA's Deep Impact probe hits Comet Tempel 1 (NASA)Before we look at the claims behind this doomsday scenario, we must first study Earth’s risk of actually being hit by a comet. We know we’ve been hit by comets in the past, and we will most definitely be hit by more in the future, but the coast is clear for at least a few decades from a marauding comet or asteroid. In fact, meteoroids in the form of chunks of rock are far more numerous than icy comets, and we are hit by several sizeable rocky meteoroids throughout the year (take 2008 TC3, the first predicted meteoroid atmospheric impact, for example).
Although rare, planetary impacts by comets do happen. As Shoemaker-Levy 9 showed us in 1994 when 2km-wide fragments of the comet bombarded the Jovian atmosphere, we mustn’t be complacent when considering a large impact event by comets or asteroids. The dazzling light show by Shoemaker-Levy 9 actually stimulated efforts to increase sky surveys for a possibly catastrophic impact event. Although a vast number of near-Earth objects (NEOs) have been identified, a very small number are considered to be a risk.
Fragments of Shoemaker-Levy 9 (NASA/HST)
The 270 meter-wide asteroid 99942 Apophis caused a stir in 2006 when it became the highest ranking asteroid on the Torino impact hazard scale. Apophis is now expected to glide safely past the Earth in 2029, but depending on the gravitational deflection caused by Earth in 2029, Apophis could pass through a gravitational “keyhole”, creating another impact possibility on April 13th, 2036. Still, the odds are not worth betting on; would you put money on a 1 in 45,000 chance of an Apophis 2036 impact?
There are other lumps of rock out there, but most are benign, and certainly not a threat to everyday life in 2012. However, we must be aware that asteroids are a very real future threat to humanity. As a result of this increased awareness, other NEOs have been discovered and tracked. Objects such as 2007 VK184, a 130 meter-wide asteroid may cause problems in the distant future, but the probability of impact is still extremely low. Astronomers from the Catalina Sky Survey estimate a few possible impact dates for 2007 VK184, but the odds never exceed a 0.037% chance of hitting Earth in the next 100 years. Other asteroids are currently being tracked and they may cause some concern over a century from now (although none surpass a Torino scale of Level 1, and if they do, all tend to fall back to the “normal” Level 0).
In short, the skies are clear from any imminent (certainly within the next 4 years) impact from an asteroid. Comets do not feature as a significant risk either. There is no astronomical evidence supporting otherwise.
This doesn’t stop organizations such as ex-NASA astronaut Rusty Schweickart’s B612 Foundation from planning for possible future asteroid/comet threats. While Hollywood movies would have us believe blowing a comet up with a nuclear bomb will be a very good idea, the B612 Foundation disagrees. In fact, it could be a very bad idea. The key thing to remember when reading about NEO surveys or asteroid/comet deflection techniques is that we need a lot of lead time to stand any hope of deflecting a possible catastrophic impact event. This does not indicate a concern in the near future, it is simply a prudent precaution to safeguard the distant future of our planet.
The 2012 Comet-Google Conspiracy The evidence for a comet... or Planet X... whichever. The void in Google Sky, are they hiding something? (Google)So, it looks like we are safe from any astronomical impact. That’s not to say we won’t be hit by a small meteoroid, large fireballs occur regularly (remember the November 21st Canada bolide, and the most recent December 6th Colorado fireball, the largest of which was possibly caused by a 10-tonne rocky meteoroid). Also, this is not to say we won’t discover more NEOs within the next four years (we could spot a threatening object tomorrow for all we know), but the point is that there is absolutely no evidence for any civilization-ending comet impact in 2012. Any claims to the contrary are completely false.
So why are we seeing ads touting the “2012 Comet” theory? As far as I can tell, it is based on one very flimsy piece of evidence. So, lets load up Google Earth to see where the problem is…
If you have Google Earth installed on your computer, you have the ability to look “up” rather than just down at the Earth’s surface. Switching the software to the night sky allows you to see the constellations and will guide you and a dazzling tour of the observable Universe. Despite this overload of information, is Google hiding something? Is the huge search-engine based company actively trying to hide observations of a comet from us?
Using Google Earth data for optical, infrared (IRAS) and microwave (WMAP) surveys (Google)
Guide Google Earth to RA:5h 54m 00s, Dec: -6° 00′ 00″ and zoom in. If you don’t have Google Earth, this region can also be found in the online version of Google Sky. You’ll see an ominous rectangular void (a.k.a. the “Google Anomaly” in the images above) right next to the Orion Nebula, south of Orion’s Belt.
Note: The Constellation of Orion and therefore the “Google Anomaly” is in a very conspicuous location of the night sky, observable from northern and southern hemispheres.
This void is only apparent in the optical data; if you switch the data set to the microwave survey carried out by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), you’ll find the void is replaced by data. Also, infrared data covers the region pretty nicely.
Note: This infrared view of the sky was observed by the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS).
So, the theory is that Google is hiding observations of an incoming comet. But there is an added twist to the comet conspiracy theory; the comet is also referred to as a “comet planet” and therefore a Planet X candidate (but I thought Planet X was a brown dwarf candidate?). Yes, Planet X seems to be at the root of all doomsday scenarios.
I’ll try to make this as quick as possible:
1) IRAS Data A popular image on Planet X websites. Is this Planet X, or is it simply a young galaxy? (NASA - possible source)The Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) was an orbiting telescope that lasted for 10 months in 1983. It performed an infrared survey of the entire sky, churning up some fantastic observations of ultra-luminous young galaxies and intergalactic “cirrus”. However, before these objects were formally identified, the media (in particular the Washington Post) hinted heavily that some of these objects could be the fabled “Planet X” in the outskirts of our Solar System. This is one of the key theories doomsayers cite as fact that Planet X exists. Using dubious logic, several authors claim these early observations prove that Planet X is in fact the Sumerian planet “Nibiru”. Nibiru is therefore a brown dwarf. In this theory, death and destruction quickly follows, including the appearance of an alien race called the Annunaki (our alien ancestors) who want their planet back. Wonderful science fiction, with no roots in science fact.
So, is this “2012 comet” actually Planet X? If it is (disregarding the obvious fact that a comet is not a planet, let alone a brown dwarf), why is the Google Anomaly only a void patch in optical data? If Google and NASA were trying to hide evidence of a “comet” (by removing a region of optical data), surely they’d remove the IRAS data too? In any case, the IRAS data shows no object within the anomaly. Besides, why would Google leave a very obvious patch of missing optical data, when they could have just airbrushed the object from the dataset?
In conclusion, the Google Anomaly is in fact missing data, pure and simple. There’s no comet there, and simply because there is missing data does not prove the existence of anything sinister.
2) Just Look Up
Just in case you needed a little more convincing that the 2012 comet/Planet X theory was complete bunkum, think about the location of this proposed comet. The Google Anomaly is in full view for most of the planet throughout the year as it is in the constellation of Orion, right in the neighbourhood of some of the most famous, and well-studied stars and nebulae (the Horsehead Nebula and the Great Orion Nebula for example). If anyone looks at the Google Anomaly with suspicion, why not look straight up and see for yourself? Amateur astronomers have access to very advanced optics, so I think that if there was a suspect “comet planet” in the region, it would have been spotted by now (without Google’s help).
In Conclusion
The truth is that the Planet X conspiracy theory is wrong, but the 2012 comet theory is even worse. The chances of a large planet swinging through the inner solar system in 2012 has the same odds as a comet impact on that date: nil.
We cannot predict the future, and no ancient prophecy will prove the existence of a modern astronomical “end of the world” scenario. I am sure 2012 will be a significant year for spiritual and religious reasons, I’m not debating that. However, for doomsayers to use modern science to prove their inaccurate doomsday creations for personal gain is not only irresponsible, it can be very damaging.
