2012: No Killer Solar Flare
Written by Ian O'Neill
We could be in for a huge firework display in 2012. The Sun will be approaching the peak of its 11-year cycle, called "solar maximum", so we can expect a lot of solar activity. Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003 (remember all those record breaking X-class flares?). Solar physicists are already getting excited about this next cycle and new prediction methods are being put to good use. But should we be worried?
2012 related articles:
- 2012: No Killer Solar Flare (posted June 21st 2008)
- 2012: Planet X Is Not Nibiru (posted June 19th 2008)
- 2012: No Planet X (posted May 25th 2008)
- No Doomsday in 2012 (posted May 19th 2008)
According to one of the many Doomsday scenarios we have been presented with in the run-up to the Mayan Prophecy-fuelled "end of the world" in the year 2012, this scenario is actually based on some science. What's more, there may be some correlation between the 11-year solar cycle and the time cycles seen in the Mayan calendar, perhaps this ancient civilization understood how the Sun's magnetism undergoes polarity changes every decade or so? Plus, religious texts (such as the Bible) say that we are due for a day of judgement, involving a lot of fire and brimstone. So it looks like we are going to get roasted alive by our closest star on December 21st, 2012!
Before we go jumping to conclusions, take a step back and think this through. Like most of the various ways the world is going to end in 2012, the possibility of the Sun blasting out a huge, Earth-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there. But let's have a look at what really happens during an Earth-directed solar flare event, the Earth is actually very well protected. Although some satellites may not be…
The Earth has evolved in a highly radioactive environment. The Sun constantly fires high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth may be unlucky enough to be staring down the barrel of an explosion with the energy of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known as a solar flare and the effects of which can cause problems here on Earth.
Before we look at the Earth-side effects, let's have a look at the Sun and briefly understand why it gets so angry every 11 years or so.
The Solar Cycle
First and foremost, the Sun has a natural cycle with a period of approximately 11 years. During the lifetime of each cycle, the magnetic field lines of the Sun are dragged around the solar body by differential rotation at the solar equator. This means that the equator is spinning faster than the magnetic poles. As this continues, solar plasma drags the magnetic field lines around the Sun, causing stress and a build up of energy (an illustration of this is pictured). As magnetic energy increases, kinks in the magnetic flux form, forcing them to the surface. These kinks are known as coronal loops which become more numerous during periods of high solar activity.
This is where the sunspots come in. As coronal loops continue to pop up over the surface, sunspots appear too, often located at the loop footpoints. Coronal loops have the effect of pushing the hotter surface layers of the Sun (the photosphere and chromosphere) aside, exposing the cooler convection zone (the reasons why the solar surface and atmosphere is hotter than the solar interior is down to the coronal heating phenomenon). As magnetic energy builds up, we can expect more and more magnetic flux to be forced together. This is when a phenomenon known as magnetic reconnection occurs.
Reconnection is the trigger for solar flares of various sizes. As previously reported, solar flares from "nanoflares" to "X-class flares" are very energetic events. Granted, the largest flares my generate enough energy for 100 billion atomic explosions, but don't let this huge figure concern you. For a start, this flare occurs in the low corona, right near the solar surface. That's nearly 100 million miles away (1AU). The Earth is nowhere close to the blast.
As the solar magnetic field lines release a huge amount of energy, solar plasma is accelerated and confined within the magnetic environment (solar plasma is superheated particles like protons, electrons and some light elements such as helium nuclei). As the plasma particles interact, X-rays may be generated if the conditions are right and bremsstrahlung is possible. (Bremsstrahlung occurs when charged particles interact, resulting in X-ray emission.) This may create an X-ray flare.
The Problem with X-ray Solar Flares
The biggest problem with an X-ray flare is that we get little warning when it is going to happen as X-rays travel at the speed of light (one of the record breaking 2003 solar flares is pictured left). X-rays from an X-class flare will reach the Earth in around eight minutes. As X-rays hit our atmosphere, they are absorbed in the outermost layer called the ionosphere. As you can guess from the name, this is a highly charged, reactive environment, full of ions (atomic nuclei, and free electrons).
During powerful solar events such as flares, rates of ionization between X-rays and atmospheric gases increase in the D and E region layers of the ionosphere. There is a sudden surge in electron production in these layers. These electrons can cause interference to the passage of radio waves through the atmosphere, absorbing short wave radio signals (in the high frequency range), possibly blocking global communications. These events are known as "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances" (or SIDs) and they become commonplace during periods of high solar activity. Interestingly, the increase in electron density during a SID boosts the propagation of Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio, a phenomenon scientists use to measure the intensity of X-rays coming from the Sun.
Coronal Mass Ejections?
X-ray solar flare emissions are only part of the story. If the conditions are right, a coronal mass ejection (CME) might be produced at the site of the flare (although either phenomenon can occur independently). CMEs are slower than the propagation of X-rays, but their global effects here on Earth can be more problematic. They may not travel at the speed of light, but they still travel fast; they can travel at a rate of 2 million miles per hour (3.2 million km/hr), meaning they may reach us in a matter of hours.
This is where much effort is being put into space weather prediction. We have a handful of spacecraft sitting between the Earth and the Sun at the Earth-Sun Lagrangian (L1) point with sensors on board to measure the energy and intensity of the solar wind. Should a CME pass through their location, energetic particles and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) can be measured directly. One mission called the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) sits in the L1 point and provides scientists with up to an hour notice on the approach of a CME. ACE teams up with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO), so CMEs can be tracked from the lower corona into interplanetary space, through the L1 point toward Earth. These solar missions are actively working together to provide space agencies with advanced notice of an Earth-directed CME.
So what if a CME reaches Earth? For a start, much depends on the magnetic configuration of the IMF (from the Sun) and the geomagnetic field of the Earth (the magnetosphere). Generally speaking, if both magnetic fields are aligned with polarities pointing in the same direction, it is highly probable that the CME will be repelled by the magnetosphere. In this case, the CME will slide past the Earth, causing some pressure and distortion on the magnetosphere, but otherwise passing without a problem. However, if the magnetic field lines are in an anti-parallel configuration (i.e. magnetic polarities in opposite directions), magnetic reconnection may occur at the leading edge of the magnetosphere.
In this event, the IMF and magnetosphere will merge, connecting the Earth's magnetic field with the Sun's. This sets the scene for one of the most awe inspiring events in nature: the aurora.
Satellites in Peril
As the CME magnetic field connects with the Earth's, high energy particles are injected into the magnetosphere. Due to solar wind pressure, the Sun's magnetic field lines will fold around the Earth, sweeping behind our planet. The particles injected in the "dayside" will be funnelled into the polar regions of the Earth where they interact with our atmosphere, generating light as aurorae. During this time, the Van Allen belt will also become "super-charged", creating a region around the Earth that could cause problems to unprotected astronauts and any unshielded satellites. For more on the damage that can be caused to astronauts and spacecraft, check out "Radiation Sickness, Cellular Damage and Increased Cancer Risk for Long-term Missions to Mars" and "New Transistor Could Side-Step Space Radiation Problem."
As if the radiation from the Van Allen belt wasn't enough, satellites could succumb to the threat of an expanding atmosphere. As you'd expect, as if the Sun hits the Earth with X-rays and CMEs, there will be inevitable heating and global expansion of the atmosphere, possibly encroaching into satellite orbital altitudes. If left unchecked, an aerobraking effect on satellites could cause them to slow and drop in altitude. Aerobraking has been used extensively as a space flight tool to slow spacecraft down when being inserted into orbit around another planet, but this will have an adverse effect on satellites orbiting Earth as any slowing of velocity could cause it to re-enter the atmosphere.
We Feel the Effects on the Ground Too
Although satellites are on the front line, if there is a powerful surge in energetic particles entering the atmosphere, we may feel the adverse effects down here on Earth too. Due to the X-ray generation of electrons in the ionosphere, some forms of communication may become patchy (or be removed all together), but this isn't all that can happen. Particularly in high-latitude regions, a vast electric current, known as an "electrojet", may form through the ionosphere by these incoming particles. With an electric current comes a magnetic field. Depending on the intensity of the solar storm, currents may be induced down here on the ground, possibly overloading national power grids. On March 13th 1989, six million people lost power in the Quebec region of Canada after a huge increase in solar activity caused a surge from ground-induced currents. Quebec was paralysed for nine hours whilst engineers worked on a solution to the problem.
Can Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare?
The short answer to this is "no".
The longer answer is a little more involved. Whilst a solar flare from out Sun, aimed directly at us, could cause secondary problems such as satellite damage and injury to unprotected astronauts and blackouts, the flare itself is not powerful enough to destroy Earth, certainly not in 2012. I dare say, in the far future when the Sun begins to run out of fuel and swell into a red giant, it might be a bad era for life on Earth, but we have a few billion years to wait for that to happen. There could even be the possibility of several X-class flares being launched and by pure bad luck we may get hit by a series of CMEs and X-ray bursts, but none will be powerful to overcome our magnetosphere, ionosphere and thick atmosphere below.
"Killer" solar flares have been observed on other stars. In 2006, NASA's Swift observatory saw the largest stellar flare ever observed 135 light-years away. Estimated to have unleashed an energy of 50 million trillion atomic bombs, the II Pegasi flare will have wiped out most life on Earth if our Sun fired X-rays from a flare of that energy at us. However, our Sun is not II Pegasi. II Pegasi is a violent red giant star with a binary partner in a very close orbit. It is believed the gravitational interaction with its binary partner and the fact II Pegasi is a red giant is the root cause behind this energetic flare event.
Doomsayers point to the Sun as a possible Earth-killer source, but the fact remains that our Sun is a very stable star. It does not have a binary partner (like II Pegasi), it has a predictable cycle (of approximately 11 years) and there is no evidence that our Sun contributed to any mass extinction event in the past via a huge Earth-directed flare. Very large solar flares have been observed (such as the 1859 Carrington white light flare)… but we are still here.
In an added twist, solar physicists are surprised by the lack of solar activity at the start of this 24th solar cycle, leading to some scientists to speculate we might be on the verge of another Maunder minimum and "Little Ice Age". This is in stark contrast to NASA solar physicist's 2006 prediction that this cycle will be a "doozy".
This leads me to conclude that we still have a long way to go when predicting solar flare events. Although space weather prediction is improving, it will be a few years yet until we can read the Sun accurately enough to say with any certainty just how active a solar cycle is going to be. So, regardless of prophecy, prediction or myth, there is no physical way to say that the Earth will be hit by any flare, let alone a big one in 2012. Even if a big flare did hit us, it will not be an extinction event. Yes, satellites may be damaged, causing secondary problems such as a GPS loss (which might disrupt air traffic control for example) or national power grids may be overwhelmed by auroral electrojets, but nothing more extreme than that.
But hold on, to sidestep this issue, doomsayers now tell us that a large solar flare will hit us just as the Earth's geomagnetic field weakens and reverses, leaving us unprotected from the ravages of a CME… The reasons why this is not going to happen in 2012 is worthy of its own article. So, look out for the next 2012 article "2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal".
Leading image credits: MIT (supernova simulation), NASA/JPL (solar active region in EUV). Effects and editing: myself.
Filed under: Earth, Solar Astronomy
June 21st, 2008 at 2:53 pm
And once more science conquers pseudoscience except in the minds of the "true believers" who will not allow something as inconvenient as the facts get in the way of their feelings and intuitions.
June 21st, 2008 at 3:14 pm
And what's up if an overcharge in the ionosphere due to x-flares, is so strong, to cause a planet wide shortcut and a consequent poles shift? Could it be possible? Or what is needed to cause such a shift?
June 21st, 2008 at 3:24 pm
That is a really good point, very interesting observation. I suspect however that any magnetic interference in the ionosphere (D and E layers - about 100km thick) will be incosequential to the interior magnetism of the planet. However, some scientists believe that the Sun's magnetic field (or interplanetary magnetic field) could in some way influence the internal convective/turbulent motion in the Earth's mantle/core… but there is currenly no evidence to prove this. The Earth's magnetic field appears to be very robust, it would take a very big planetary body to kick the magnetic poles around I would think…
Thanks for stopping by
Cheers! Ian
June 21st, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Ian, you are aware, of course, that you'll soon become the most hated member of the UT team, aren't you?
June 21st, 2008 at 5:37 pm
There's a lot more doomsday articles where this came from, so things can only get better!
Cheers! Ian
June 22nd, 2008 at 12:34 am
Ian,
you are what my dear old mom used to call a "rable-rouser". Good luck with the round.
June 22nd, 2008 at 1:06 am
it is quite clear that extreme solar maxima with many spots, strong solar perturbation should be during top of this solar cycle-2011,….
It is forecasted even by official science. Official science also says that this solar activity is the strongest per last 8000 years. There are also Venus transit, Jupiter's perihelia in 2012-what mean strong tidal effects-1/3 higher tides,…..Shift of north magnetic pole, its acceleration causes that ozone hole changes it's possition significantly too. I don't reccomend to peple to be where ozone hole is present. When solar wind of solar particle hit Earth so it doesn't mean immediate death for people, but many exposed will suffer cancer,…
June 22nd, 2008 at 2:50 am
Watch out for the Quarkonium nugget that will cause the Sun to Super-Flare!
(attempting a meme-launch… let's see how long it takes to become "fact" for the loonies)
June 22nd, 2008 at 3:45 am
Good comprehensive article Ian. Even if all of the factors conspired to permit a total disaster to overcome the Earth, why worry about it? We're stuck on this planet, we don't have the technical ability to prevent such an occurrence, nor the know-how to predict it, so grab a beer and kiss your a** goodbye whilst reminiscing about the good times. The one good thing is it will finally shut the Doomsayers up…..
June 22nd, 2008 at 4:22 am
Maybe we have enough technical, spiritual,… abilities to prevent, or to eliminate the worst,….Earth is the best our telescope (it's ocan's surface), and those satellites monitoring changes of water levels can give data how far potential X is,…
Other satellites monitoring Sun can give us quick infos about solar wind, flares,….
Other satellites monitoring Saturne-it's magnetic field changes, storms,…monittoring Titan with it's atmosphere, surface liquids, or monitoring of Jupiter, Mars can give us forewarnings too,….
June 22nd, 2008 at 4:35 am
"Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003"? Come on, we have a consensus for more than a year now that cycle 24 can be average at best - and its slow start (that some already make a fuzz about) actually implies a rather weak one.
June 22nd, 2008 at 4:52 am
There are no definites when predicting the actions of our Sun…
Cheers, Ian
June 22nd, 2008 at 7:46 am
Just throwing the biblical perspective in this…
Isa 30:26 Moreover the light of the moon shall be as the light of the sun, and the light of the sun shall be sevenfold, as the light of seven days, in the day that the LORD bindeth up the breach of his people, and healeth the stroke of their wound.
Rev 16:8 And the fourth angel poured out his vial upon the sun; and power was given unto him to scorch men with fire.
Rev 16:9 And men were scorched with great heat, and blasphemed the name of God, which hath power over these plagues: and they repented not to give him glory.
There is more, but I'm sure this is adequate for now.
June 22nd, 2008 at 10:21 am
Here we go again, soothsayers, and bible thumpers..
June 22nd, 2008 at 11:11 am
No, Ian, in April 2007 a consensus was reached among the world's solar 'prophets' that a huge cycle 24 is out of the question - see the links in this story for reference.
The panel tried - successfully - to get most everyone on board, and even the high-max faction conceeded it had no grounds for its belief - and overblown press releases, I may add - anymore. Once the new cycle gets going (later this year) a refined consensus update should be issued; it's overdue because the Sun is lazy …
June 22nd, 2008 at 1:39 pm
(solar plasma is superheated particles like protons, electrons and some light elements such as hydrogen nuclei).
A hydrogen nuclei IS a Proton! Well OK I am a gardener, but I do remember my High school science.
June 22nd, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Thanks!
Ian
June 22nd, 2008 at 5:21 pm
"Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker." - from the April 2007 NOAA report you reference.
The "consensus" you speak of makes a record breaking solar max unlikely. But there are many solar scientists (including myself) who are acutely aware that the Sun has more than a simple 11-year cycle. There is the 22-year cycle (two 11-year cycles), a 70-100 year cycle and a 200+ year cycle (plus some long-term ones). Now scientists believe that the implication of the "solar conveyor belt" may strongly influence the activity of a cycle (this is outlined in the 2006 NASA article: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm)
However, more data is needed. I actually worked on some data comparisons from ground-based and space-based observatories a while ago, and many solar cylces that appeared to be quiet, erupted to life within a year or two.
So to say the next cycle will not be as active as the last is unfounded. I doubt it will be a record-breaker, and scientists will remain split over whether it will be big or small for some time to come. It is an unpredictable creature our star, we'll need to wait a while before we have any accurate predictions.
Cheers, Ian
June 23rd, 2008 at 9:08 am
i'm not advocating for any of the 2012 theories but i do believe that the recent case EV Lacertae gives reason to question the notion that the sun(or any other star) can't surprise us:
[[At a distance of only 16 light-years, EV Lacertae is one of our closest stellar neighbors. But with its feeble light output, its faint magnitude-10 glow is far below naked-eye visibility.
"Here's a small, cool star that shot off a monster flare. This star has a record of producing flares, but this one takes the cake," says Rachel Osten, a Hubble Fellow at the University of Maryland, College Park and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.
"Flares like this would deplete the atmospheres of life-bearing planets, sterilizing their surfaces."]]
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/The_Mouse_That_Roared_Pipsqueak_Star_Unleashes_Monster_Flare_999.html
June 23rd, 2008 at 9:44 am
In 2012 you better get your Christmas shopping done early, because the stores are going to be very crowded on Dec. 22d when the Mayan Doomsday idiots realize the End Of The World is not going to happen.
June 23rd, 2008 at 11:14 pm
It is very interesting to know about the sun.
Unless more data is collected about the sun no conclusion can be drawn.
We need to be very particular about the predictions based on insufficient information.
P.J.LAKHAPATE
plakhapate@gmail.com
June 24th, 2008 at 7:09 am
Ian…Have mercy!!!! I implore you to intercede! Leah and Becky are still exchanging responses to your May 19th article "No Doomsday in 2012"! Their last entry was this morning! I wondered why we hadn't heard from them in spite of the fact you have written about 2012 on at least 3 other occasions. Here's a thought: Maybe we can somehow wean them off 2012 and onto Space Mirrors!
June 26th, 2008 at 8:25 am
Give me strength!!
enough with the 2012!!!
June 26th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Thank you for this excellent and informative article. I look forward to your next article on geomagnetic reversal
June 27th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Ian,
Very good an informative article. I've learned a lot from it. I still have some questions though. Is it true that around 2012, the Earth will be centering our galaxy? Is it true that this will have some influence on the effect that might be caused by the solar activity to the Earth?
Please answer me fast by mail or on this page. I'm a bit TOO concerned thanks to all that dooms-crab etc.
Thanks in advance.
Best, Fari,
June 28th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Hey, I'm sure that there will we a doomsday, but I'm not sure when and how. Either a giant solar flare or a giant comet / asteroid or some other thing. Good job thought at this and other articles! I got more to think about now!
- Igor
June 29th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Asgard,
though I am no scientist, and perhaps don't know exactly what I am talking about, this upcoming solar flare is supposed to be either a large solar flare, or a small one, but not a record breaker. I'm sure if this fact STILL stands after scientists have seen the effects of EV Lacertae, I believe we are at no threat towards 'Killer Flares' as Ian suggested in his thread. HE also suggested they are possible, as you explained, however if Ian can almost guarantee that a 'killer solar flare' is not going to occur, then I will take a wild stab in the dark and conclude that since he is a solar scientist, and a logical one at that, it likely will not happen.
Though I am open minded and believe that your prophecy may in fact be true, I simply choose to deny it out of paranoia. If Ian could back me up, I'd appreciate it! (Pweese?)
June 29th, 2008 at 9:50 pm
with evidence and knowledge like this floating around i'm not sure why ppl are still paranoid about the "end". probably cuz its interesting and scarry at the same time. but i'm sure NASA and these astrobiologists know what they are talking about, so i'm not worried
i kno some ppl may say "they dont know what they are talking about, they are lying to us" blah blah blah, NASA's goal is to seek information and the truth, why would an organization like that lie to us? ppl baffle me sometimes
June 29th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
i'm sure there will b a doomsday too bcuz everything that has a beginning also has an end. but recent searches and sceintists support evidence that the earth and the universe are still stable enuff to survive at least another couple hundred years.
July 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 am
Thank you for providing such concise, informative answers to this whole debacle. This is one of the only sites I've been able to find that has bothered to offer scientific evidence to prove or disprove the 2012 Doom theory. Everything else I've found through google has been religious and fanatical ramblings based off of old mythology and ancient calenders. Don't get me wrong, I respect ancient culture, but in an age where science is getting as sophisticated as it is, I always remain skeptical. I require real answers. You helped to provide some of that.
This article is actually very reassuring. I was pulling up nothing but Doomsday results from multiple search engines, and it was beginning to make me uneasy. Finding this article, as well as a few others, really clarified what was actually going on without any supernatural, religious or cult-like themes involved. I really wish that there were more sites and news resources that addressed the issue like you have, but alas, they seem to be few and far in between.
July 4th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Recent NG article: "Earth's Core, Magnetic Field Changing Fast, Study Says" [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/76158139.html]
Ok… combine a weakened atmosphere, with a high point of solar flare activity…. and the Mayan end of the world thesis is looking pretty strong.
Did Indiana Jones ever find those Crystal Skulls? Maybe those can help.
July 9th, 2008 at 6:31 am
galactic center blahblah…this actually would HAVE NO EFFECT PEOPLE "PLANERATY ALIGEMENTS" HAVE TOTALLY NO INFLUENCE GRAVITY DOES NOT GO IN A STRAIGHT LINE SO IF WE WERE DOOMED WE WOULD BE LONG DEAD
IN 2000 EACH PLANET WAS ALIGNED AND NOTHING HAPPENED
"influence" "bad" LOL, our Earth had periodes where there was 20x more CO2 in the aiur, when there was much more oxtygen, when ozone layer w2as almost nonexistent…and no "end of the world", it izs purely a human fantasy because they cannot imagine that heavently bodies have lifetimes billions of times longer than any of them or even their civilization
even if "solar flare" did, no end of the world, the life existed here when there WAS NO OZONE LAYER WHATSOVER in the precambrium
Earth is not sensitive like new agers want you to belive, it is trillion trillion kilogram heavy ironball thats build to LAST
July 11th, 2008 at 12:03 am
After reading this article I have made the observation that the author, Ian O'Neill, has little understanding of the Mayan Calendar and its true end-date on the winter solstice of December 21st, 2012. For example, the prophecy is intrinsically about a spiritual evolution of humankind, an evolution of consciousness and the transition from one world to the next, via the "death of the fifth sun," and the subsequent re-birth of a new, sixth sun, culminating in a "new world" which is purified and restored from the downward spiral of materialism, ego, and greed. Regarding X-rays: is the author aware that x-rays are solely responsible for mutations of our DNA? Increased output during periods of Solar Maximums, coupled with weakened magnetic field strength could be the very necessary ingredients for genetic mutations, and in retrospect… Evolution?
In addition, the Mayan calendar is centered around the wheel of Precession, the approximate 26,000 year cycle which is said the drive the wheel of evolution. Is the author aware of the 62 million year extinction events found in the fossil record by Berkeley scientists, et al, and that we are VERY overdue for an extinction like event, as well as a magnetic pole shift? To further drive my point, our magnetic poles have been constantly drifting — for example, airports have to constantly repaint lines and magnetic compasses have been known to malfunction in the recent years.
Another point I would like to bring up are the changes that are occurring in the Local Interstellar Medium (LISM) and the massive increase in space dust entering our solar system at this time… According to the data and literature, this extra space debris is colliding with the front end of the sun's magnetic field, or heliosphere, and in effect this is causing a solar system wide heating effect. Literally, the density of space is changing and is more energetic, therefore altering the physical parameters that our known solar system has worked upon for aeons. Several planets have had magnetic pole shifts, (either partial or full reversals) since this event begin taking place. In addition, other planets have had similar "global warming" events and have registered changes in brightness, atmospheric pressure, etc.
Returning to the Sun, this "denser" space is fueling more energetic activity from our closest star and is making for these crazy, intense solar X-ray flares to reach earth in a matter of minutes.
In the end, what effect will all this have on the very fabric of life–or DNA?
The potential is there, we must study it.
July 11th, 2008 at 12:48 am
So I have to say I did speak a little too soon… I retract my comment about Ian having little understanding about the Mayan calendar after reading this statement from another related article Ian wrote:
"Archaeologists and mythologists on the other hand believe that the Mayans predicted an age of enlightenment when 13.0.0.0.0 comes around; there isn't actually much evidence to suggest doomsday will strike. If anything, the Mayans predict a religious miracle, not anything sinister."
I agree…
But please check out the science behind what I have brought up, i.e. the changes in the LISM, etc…
Here are a few articles to check out Ian:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3238961.stm
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=12426
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4021-galactic-dust-storm-enters-solar-system.html
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070312_solarsys_warming.html
http://www.divinecosmos.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=102&Itemid=36
July 19th, 2008 at 12:05 am
I ask you to read the previous 2012 articles - you'll see I have a good understanding of the Mayan Prophecy and the Mayan calendar end date.
My argument has never been with spiritual, religious or metaphysical beliefs; my argument is against people who are using astronomical mis-truths to sell a book or scare people. There is no evidence for a killer solar flare, pole shift, Planet X, or any other astronomical entity that will kill us right on Dec 21st 2012.
That is not to say there are disasters that do happen, and many are unpredictable by nature (including extinction events as you mentioned), but there is NO evidence for doomsday in 2012.
The future has never been predicted, and it never will be.
Cheers, Ian
July 26th, 2008 at 5:36 am
I don't claim to know what will happen in three & a half years from now. But if it gives me a permanent break on the worry of covering my monthly mortgage in this day's economy, fantastic!
August 2nd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
when will you write 2012:No Geomagnetic reversal
August 6th, 2008 at 5:43 am
Hey.. what about the sun's alignment with the galactic center on 21-12-2012……..It may trigger a massive X-flare….that can possibly zap over earth's surface….also things about barycenter of sun with that of Jupiter and Saturn on that day may further add up to a powerful solar flare……
August 12th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
if the center of the galaxy contains a super massive black hole, and the sun aligns in the center.. wouldnt something bad happen then?
August 17th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Hi Ian,
I am not concerned with Planet X in the context of whether it is real or not. What I am concerned with is if the leaders of the world believe it will happen. My reason for that statement is that they seem to be preparing themselves for a catastophe in the year 2012. They have been building underground bases and bunkers 150 storeys beneath the earth's surface for some time now. Bill Gates, the Rockefeller Foundation, Monsanto and Syngenta have invested heavily in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault located in the Arctic dubbed the "Doomsday Seed Vault". A number of politicians in the know have come out and expressed great concern about the actions of their own government - this is not a conspiracy, this is fact. They have visited these underground bases. I personally know a politician who has concerns. Maybe you a correct in that nothing is naturally going to happen in 2012 but what I am afraid of is that these crackpots we call our world leaders will set us all up for our last great firework show whilst they hide in safety.