Remember when Orson Welles’ 1938 radio show called “The War of the Worlds” fooled people into thinking that Earth was actually being invaded? That was fun.
Now, the ESA (European Space Agency) is tempting fate by live-tweeting the hypothetical approach of the hypothetical asteroid 2019PDC and hypothetically planning a hypothetical response to this hypothetically destructive asteroid. In their hypothetical scenario, 2019 PDC has a 1 in 10 chance of striking Earth in 2029. And you can follow the action on Twitter.
Once again, the Slooh Space Camera team will host a live webcast of an asteroid flyby of Earth. This one might be a bit more intriguing than others, if only because of the connotation this asteroid has. Asteroid Apophis a near-Earth asteroid with an estimated diameter of almost three football fields (270m), is making its closest approach to us this year — but it will still be quite distant, at about 14 million km – but this is close enough for astronomers to study the space rock and assess its future risk.
On Wednesday, January 9th, Slooh.com, will start the webcast at 4 p.m. PST / 7 p.m. EST / 00:00 UTC (1/10) — International times here — accompanied by real-time discussions with Slooh President Patrick Paolucci, Slooh Outreach Coordinator and Engineer Paul Cox, and Documentary Filmmaker Duncan Copp.
An artist’s rendering of the asteroid Apophis. Credit: ESA
What would be a way to deflect asteroid Apophis if it gets a little too close for comfort in 2029 or 2036? Pew-pew it with 5 tons of white paintballs. Not only would the multiple mini impacts bump the asteroid off course, but the white paint would cover the surface and reflect more sunlight, and over time, the bouncing of photons off its surface could create enough of a force to push the asteroid off its course.
That’s the idea of the winning entry in this year’s Move an Asteroid Technical Paper Competition, sponsored by the United Nations’ Space Generation Advisory Council. Sung Wook Paek, a graduate student in MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, says if timed just right, pellets full of paint powder, launched in two rounds from a spacecraft at relatively close distance, would cover the front and back of an asteroid, more than doubling its reflectivity, or albedo. The initial force from the pellets would bump an asteroid off course; over time, the sun’s photons would deflect the asteroid even more.
This video portrays how the paintball technique would work:
Paek said his paintball strategy builds on a solution submitted by last year’s competition winner, who proposed deflecting an asteroid with a cloud of solid pellets. Paek came up with a similar proposal, adding paint to the pellets to take advantage of solar radiation pressure — the force exerted on objects by the sun’s photons.
In his proposal, Paek used the asteroid Apophis as a theoretical test case. This 27-gigaton rock may come close to Earth in 2029, and then again in 2036. Paek determined that five tons of paint would be required to cover the massive asteroid, which has a diameter of 450 meters (1,480 feet). He used the asteroid’s period of rotation to determine the timing of pellets, launching a first round to cover the front of the asteroid, and firing a second round once the asteroid’s backside is exposed. As the pellets hit the asteroid’s surface, they would burst apart, splattering the space rock with a fine, five-micrometer-layer of paint.
But this is not a quick-solution method, as Paek estimates that it would take up to 20 years for the cumulative effect of solar radiation pressure to successfully push the asteroid off its Earthbound trajectory. So if astronomers determine Apophis is a threat in 2029, we’re already too late. Additionally, the paintball method is not an option if estimates change for Asteroid 2012 DA14, which is predicted to pass very close to Earth on February 15, 2013, about 35,000 kilometers (21,000 miles) away.
Plus, using traditional paintballs, or traditional rockets for launching them, may not be ideal. Paek says the violent takeoff may rupture the payload. Instead, he envisions paintballs may be made in space, in ports such as the International Space Station, where a spacecraft could then pick up a couple of rounds of pellets to deliver to the asteroid.
But other substances could also be used instead of paint, such as aerosols that, when fired at an asteroid, “impart air drag on the incoming asteroid to slow it down,” Paek says. “Or you could just paint the asteroid so you can track it more easily with telescopes on Earth. So there are other uses for this method.”
Scientists have said the key to deflecting a dangerous asteroid is to find them early so that a plan can be developed. William Ailor, an asteroid specialist at Aerospace Corporation in California said that the potential for an asteroid collision is a long-term challenge for scientists and engineers.
“These types of analyses are really timely because this is a problem we’ll have basically forever,” Ailor says. “It’s nice that we’re getting young people thinking about it in detail, and I really applaud that.”
Russia is considering sending a spacecraft to deflect a large asteroid and prevent a possible collision with Earth, according to a radio interview by the head of the country’s space agency. Anatoly Perminov said the space agency will hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to asteroid Apophis, and said NASA, ESA, the Chinese space agency and others would be invited to join the project. Apophis is a 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid that was spotted in 2004. It is projected to come within 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) of Earth in 2029, and currently has an estimated 1-in-250,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2036.
A panel at the recent American Geophysical Union conference stressed that asteroid deflection is a international issue.
“There is a geopolitical misconception that NASA is taking care of it,” said former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, who is part of the B612 Foundation, which hopes to prove the technology to significantly alter the orbit of an asteroid by 2015. “They aren’t and this is an international issue. The decisions have to be world decisions.”
Perminov seemed unaware that NASA’s Near Earth Object program recently downgraded the possibility of a 2036 asteroid impact and also for a subsequent pass in 2068.
Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis asteroid is getting closer and may hit the planet. “I don’t remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032,” Perminov said. “People’s lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people.”
Perminov wouldn’t disclose any details of the project, saying they still need to be worked out. But he said the mission wouldn’t require any nuclear explosions.
“Calculations show that it’s possible to create a special purpose spacecraft within the time we have, which would help avoid the collision without destroying it (the asteroid) and without detonating any nuclear charges,” Perminov said. “The threat of collision can be averted.”
Boris Shustov, the director of the Institute of Astronomy under the Russian Academy of Sciences, hailed Perminov’s statement as a signal that officials had come to recognize the danger posed by asteroids like 2036 Apophis.
“Apophis is just a symbolic example, there are many other dangerous objects we know little about,” he said, according to RIA Novosti news agency.
[/caption]The term celestial body is as expansive as the entire universe, both known and unknown. By definition a celestial body is any natural body outside of the Earth’s atmosphere. Easy examples are the Moon, Sun, and the other planets of our solar system. But those are very limited examples. The Kuiper belt contains many celestial bodies. Any asteroid in space is a celestial body. So, what do you write about with such a broad topic? How about a sampling of five of my favorites and leave it at that for now? Which five, though. Well, let’s cover Ceres, the Kuiper belt, the asteroid Cruithne, Achernar, and Apophis.
Ceres is a celestial body that is by far the largest and most massive asteroid in the belt between Mars and Jupiter. It is approximately the size of Texas or 975km x 909 km with a mass of 9.5×1020. It actually represents 1/3 of all of the mass of the asteroid belt. It has enough mass for self gravity which is a major requirement to be considered a dwarf planet. It revolves around the sun every 1679.819 days with a very small axial tilt. The surface is relatively warm. The high temperature is thought to be in the neighborhood of -38°C(235 K). Ceres has a visual brightness magnitude of +6.9 to +9. When it is at the brightest point possible, Ceres is nearly bright enough to be seen with the naked eye. It can be seen with binoculars whenever it is above the horizon on a completely dark night.
The Kuiper belt contains many a celestial body. It is actually a disk-shaped region in the outer solar system lying beyond the orbit of Neptune and extending to a distance of about 50 astronomical units, containing thousands of small icy bodies, some of which are on highly elliptical orbits, periodically visiting the inner solar system as comets. It is thought to be a collection of the remnants of the formation of the solar system. Who knows what may be found when we are able to send spacecraft to its edges?
As a celestial body, the asteroid Cruithne is sort of small and indistinct until you consider that it is locked in a 1:1 orbit with the Earth. The asteroid is sometimes referred to as the Earth’s second moon. It is not a true moon because the Earth’s gravity does not effect it nor does its effect the Earth. Cruithne’s nearest pass to Earth is .1 AU (40 moon lengths), although right now it never comes closer than .3 AU. The asteroid sort of runs like a corkscrew around the Earth while both are revolving around the Sun. The asteroid Cruithne is in a normal elliptic orbit around the Sun. Its revolution around the Sun, approximately 364 days at present, is almost equal to that of the Earth. Because of this, Cruithne and Earth appear to follow each other in their paths around the Sun.
The celestial body Achernar is a bright, blue, B3-type star of six to eight solar masses lying approximately 144 light years away. It is classified as a dwarf, but it is 3,000 times more luminous than our Sun. It is in the deep southern sky and never rises above 33°N. Achernar is best seen from the southern hemisphere in November; it is circumpolar below 33°S. Achernar spins so quickly that is spherical in shape. The distance along its equator is 50% greater than its polar diameter. It is the brightest star in the Eridanus constellation. It is also the 9th brightest star in the night sky. Of the 10 brightest stars, other than our Sun, it is the hottest and bluest.
The celestial body Apophis is one of the most intriguing, to me. It is the stuff that many sci-fi legends have been based on. Apophis is most famous for the stir it caused in 2004. The asteroid was discovered on its way towards the Earth and was predicted to have a 2.7% chance of impacting the Earth. That in and of itself is not significant. Objects impact the Earth on a yearly basis. The size of Apophis was the major concern. Even a small chance that an asteroid the size of a small town hitting the Earth rightly caused a large commotion. It achieved the highest score ever on the Torino scale and it stayed on an elevated level for longer than any other asteroid ever has. It was eventually studied enough to know that it would not hit the Earth in 2004. The asteroid will pass again in 2029. Scientists predict that it will not hit the Earth, but it may pass through a gravitational keyhole that could alter its orbit enough that it could impact in 2036. The chances are slight, but real. Even if it doesn’t hit a keyhole in 2029 it will return every seven years and may pose a serious threat in the future. Scientists have proposed that Apophis be nudged out of its present orbit into an orbit that takes it further from the keyhole. NASA scientist David Morrison says, “After 2029, the deflection would have to be vigorous enough to miss not just a tiny keyhole but the much larger target of the Earth itself. And such a deflection is far beyond present technology for an asteroid this large.”.
NASA scientists have recalculated the path of the large asteroid Apophis, significantly downgrading the odds of it hitting Earth. Using new information, the refined path indicates a 1 in 250,000 chance of impact in 2036, reduced from the 1 in 45,000 odds calculated earlier. The asteroid is expected to make a record-setting — but harmless — close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 18,300 miles above Earth’s surface.
The new information provided a more accurate glimpse of 2036 Apophis’ orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately 1 in 333,000. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about 2029 Apophis is acquired.
Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029.
The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields.
“The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared,” said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. “The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed.”
The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from observations made by Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy in Manoa. Tholen pored over hundreds of previously unreleased images of the night sky made with the University of Hawaii’s 88-inch telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea.
Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid’s position in the images, enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise than previous measures for Apophis. Measurements from the Steward Observatory’s 90-inch Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley’s calculations.
“Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public’s interest since it was discovered in 2004,” said Chesley. “Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million.”
The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun, moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids.
NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near Earth-Object Observations Program, commonly called “Spaceguard,” discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
Answer: In case you haven’t heard, Asteroid 99942 Apophis is a near Earth asteroid that astronomers think will make a close flyby to the Earth in 2029. When its trajectory was first calculated back in 2004, it had one of the closest visits to Earth astronomers had seen, and had a 2.7% chance of hitting the Earth.
But follow-up observations brought that risk down to 1 in 45,000. Right now, astronomers think that Apophis is essentially no risk to the Earth. In April, 2008 media reported that a 13-year old German student had caught a math mistake made by NASA, and the risk of an Earth strike was actually 1-45. This later turned out to be a hoax.
Because of its close approach to Earth, space advocacy societies, including the Planetary Society think that the Apophis asteroid would make an ideal target for a human mission, and allow engineers to test out strategies for moving asteroids away from dangerous Earth-crossing orbits.
So back to the original question, how big is Apophis? The best estimate puts it at 270 meters (885 feet across), and it has a mass of 2.1 x 1010 kg. To give you a sense of scale, the Eiffel Tower in Paris is 324 meters tall.
But now you know its mass and size, you’re probably wondering: what would happen to the Earth if it struck? NASA estimated that a strike by Apophis would release the equivalent of 880 megatons of energy. Just as a comparison, the object that carved out Meteor Crater in Arizona probably released 3-10 megatons of energy.
If Apophis struck land, it would flatten thousands of square km of land, killing millions of people if it hit a densely populated area. But it wouldn’t cause the kinds of long term climate destruction that 1 km and larger asteroids can do. If it hit an ocean, it would create devastating tsunamis in all directions.