ISON Watch: A Post-Perihelion Viewing Guide

“ISON Lives!!!”

“ISON R.I.P…”

Those are just some of the possible headlines that we’ve wrestled with this week, as Comet C/2012 S1 ISON approaches perihelion tomorrow evening. It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a week, and this sungrazing comet promises to keep us guessing right up until the very end.

Comet ISON reaches perihelion on U.S. Thanksgiving Day Thursday, November 28th at around 18:44 Universal Time/ 1:44 PM Eastern Standard Time. ISON will pass 1.2 million kilometres from the surface of the Sun, just over eight times farther than Comet C/2011 W3 Lovejoy did in 2011, and about 38 times closer to the Sun than Mercury reaches at perihelion.

Comet ISON as seen from Ottawa, Canada on the morning of November 20th. (Credit: Andrew Symes/@FailedProtostar).
Comet ISON as seen from Ottawa, Canada on the morning of November 20th. (Credit: Andrew Symes/@FailedProtostar).

Earth-based observers essentially lost sight of ISON in the dawn twilight this past weekend, and there were fears that the comet might’ve disintegrated all together as it was tracked by NASA’s STEREO spacecraft. Troubling reports circulated early this week that emission rates for the comet had dropped while dust production had risen, possibly signaling that  fragmentation of the nucleus was imminent. Certainly, this comet is full of surprises, and our observational experience with large sungrazing comets of this sort is pretty meager.

Credit: SOHO
ISON (entering frame, to the right) currently “photobombing” SOHO’s LASCO C3 camera. Credit: NASA/ESA/SOHO.

However, as ISON entered the field of view of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory’s LASCO C3 camera earlier today it still appeared to have some game left in it. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory will pick up ISON starting at around 17:09UT/12:09 PM EST tomorrow, and track it through its history-making perihelion passage for just over two hours until 19:09UT/2:19PM EST.

And just as with Comet Lovejoy a few years ago, all eyes will be glued to the webcast from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory as ISON rounds the bend towards its date with destiny… don’t miss it!

Note: you can also follow ISON’s current progress as seen from SOHO at their website!

The tracking plan for the Solar Dynamics Observatory on November 28th as ISON passes through perihelion. (Credit: NASA/SDO).
The tracking plan for the Solar Dynamics Observatory on November 28th as ISON passes through perihelion. (Credit: NASA/SDO).

For over the past year since its discovery, pundits have pondered what is now the astronomical question of the approaching hour: just what is ISON going to do post-perihelion? Will it dazzle or fizzle? In this context, ISON has truly become “Schrödinger’s Comet,” both alive and dead in the minds of those who would attempt to divine its fate.

Recent estimates place ISON’s nucleus at between 950 and 1,250 metres in diameter. This is well above the 200 metre size that’s considered the “point of no return” for a comet passing this close to the Sun. But again, another key factor to consider is how well put together the nucleus of the comet is: a lumpy rubble pile may not hold up against the intense heat and the gravitational tug of the Sun!

Current updated light curve for ISON. Be sure to check with NASA's Comet ISON Observing Campaign for the latest updates. (Compiled by Matthew Knight on November 24th, 2013).
Current updated light curve for ISON. Be sure to check with NASA’s Comet ISON Observing Campaign for the latest updates. (Compiled by Matthew Knight on November 24th, 2013).

But what are the current prospects for spotting ISON after its fiery perihelion passage?

If the comet holds together, reasonable estimates put its maximum brightness near perihelion at between magnitudes -3 and -5, in the range of the planet Venus at maximum brilliancy. ISON will, however, only stand 14’ arc minutes from the disk of the Sun (less than half its apparent diameter) at perihelion, and spying it will be a tough feat that should only be attempted by advanced observers.

Note that for observers based at high northern latitudes “north of the 60,” the shallow angle of the ecliptic might just make it possible to spot Comet ISON low in the dawn after perihelion and before sunrise November 29th:

ISON Perihelion 1730UT Fairbanks
ISON post-perihelion at sunrise on November 29th as seen from Fairbanks, Alaska. (Created using Starry Night Education software.

We’ve managed to see the planet Venus the day of solar conjunction during similar circumstances with the Sun just below the horizon while observing from North Pole, Alaska.

Most northern hemisphere observers may catch first sight of Comet ISON post-perihelion around the morning of December 1st. Look low to the east, about half an hour before local sunrise. Use binoculars to sweep back and forth on your morning comet dawn patrol. Note that on December 1st, Saturn, Mercury, and the slim waning crescent Moon will also perch nearby!

The morning of December 1st
Comet ISON, Mercury, Saturn and the Moon: looking east on the morning of December 1st as seen from latitude 30 degrees north. (Created using Starry Night Education software).

Comet ISON will rapidly gain elevation on successive mornings as it heads off to the northeast, but will also rapidly decrease in brightness as well. If current projections hold, ISON will dip back below magnitude 0 just a few days after perihelion, and back below naked eye visibility by late December. Observers may also be able to start picking it up low to the west at dusk by mid-December, but mornings will be your best bet.

ISON path
The path of comet ISON for the first  week of December as seen from latitude 30 degrees north. Note: the planets and the Moon are depicted for December 1st. (Created using Stellarium).

Keep in mind, if ISON fizzles, this could become a “death-watch” for the remnants of the comet, as fragments that might only be visible with binoculars or a telescope follow its outward path.  If this turns out to be the case, then the best views of the “Comet formerly known as ISON” have already occurred.

Another possible scenario is that the comet might fragment right around perihelion, leaving us with a brief but brilliant “headless comet,” similar to W3 Lovejoy back in late 2011. The forward light scattering angle for any comet is key to visibility, and in this aspect, ISON is just on the grim edge in terms of its potential to enter the annals of “great” comets, such as Comet Ikeya-Seki back in 1965.

ISON will then run nearly parallel to the 16 hour line in right ascension from south to north through the month of December as it crosses the celestial equator, headed for a date with the north celestial pole just past New Years Day, 2014.

Whether as fragments or whole, comets have to obey Sir Isaac and his laws of physics as they trace their elliptical path back out of the solar system. Keep in mind, a comet’s dust tail actually precedes it on its way outbound as the solar wind sweeps past, a counter-intuitive but neat concept we may just get to see in action soon.

Here are some key dates to watch for as ISON makes tracks across the northern hemisphere sky. Passages are noted near stars brighter than +5th magnitude and closer than one degree except as mentioned:

November 29th through December 15th.
The celestial path of ISON from November 29th to December 15th. (Credit: Starry Night).

December 1st: ISON is grouped with Saturn, Mercury and the slim crescent Moon in the dawn.

December 2nd: Passes near the +4.9 magnitude star Psi Scorpii.

December 3rd: Passes into the constellation Ophiuchus.

December 5th: Passes near the +2.7 magnitude multiple star Yed Prior.

December 6th: Crosses into the constellation Serpens Caput.

December 8th: Crosses from south to north of the celestial equator.

December 15th: Passes into the constellation Hercules and near the +5th magnitude star Kappa Herculis.

December 17th: The Moon reaches Full, marking the middle of a week with decreased visibility for the comet.

December 19th: Passes into the constellation of Corona Borealis.

December 20th: Passes near the +4.8th magnitude star Xi Coronae Borealis.

December 22nd: Passes 5 degrees from the globular cluster M13. Photo op!

Dec 16-Jan 8
The path of Comet ISON from December 16th to January 8th. (Credit: Starry Night).

December 23rd: Crosses back into the constellation Hercules.

December 24th: Passes near the +3.9 magnitude star Tau Herculis.

December 26th:  Comet ISON passes closest to Earth at 0.43 A.U. or 64 million kilometres distant, now moving with a maximum apparent motion of nearly 4 degrees a day.

December 26th: Crosses into the constellation Draco and becomes circumpolar for observers based at latitude 40 north.

December 28th: Passes the +2.7 magnitude star Aldhibain.

December 29th: Passes the +4.8 magnitude star 18 Draconis.

December 31st: Passes the 4.9 magnitude star 15 Draconis.

January 2nd: Crosses into the constellation Ursa Minor.

January 4th: Crosses briefly back into the constellation Draco.

January 6th: Crosses back into the constellation Ursa Minor.

January 7th: Crosses into Cepheus; passes within 2.5 degrees of Polaris and the North Celestial Pole.

And after what is (hopefully) a brilliant show, ISON will head back out into the depths of the solar system, perhaps never to return. Whatever the case turns out to be, observations of ISON will have produced some first-rate science… and no planets, popes or prophets will have been harmed in the process. And while those in the business of predicting doom will have moved on to the next apocalypse in 2014, the rest of us will have hopefully witnessed a dazzling spectacle from this icy Oort Cloud visitor, as we await the appearance of the next Great Comet.

Enjoy the show!

ISON: "Great Comet" or the "Great Pumpkin?" Photo and gourd-based artwork by author.
ISON: “Great Comet” or “Great Pumpkin?” Photo and gourd-based artwork by author.

– Got question about Comet ISON? Lights in the Dark has answers!

– Be sure to post those amazing post-perihelion pics of Comet ISON on Universe Today’s Flickr page.

New Data: Will Comet ISON Survive its Close Perihelion Passage?

It’s the question on every astronomer’s mind this season, both backyard and professional: will Comet C/2012 S1 ISON survive perihelion?

Now, new studies released today at the American Astronomical Society’s 45th Annual Division for Planetary Sciences meeting being held this week in Denver suggests that ISON may have the “right stuff” to make it through its close perihelion passage near the Sun. This is good news, as Comet ISON is expected to be the most active and put on its best showing post-perihelion… if it survives.

Researchers Matthew Knight of the Lowell Observatory and Research Scientist Jian-Yang Li of the Planetary Science Institute both presented a compelling portrait of the characteristics and unique opportunities presented by the approach of comet ISON to the inner solar system.

Jian-Yang Li studied ISON earlier this year using Hubble before it passed behind the Sun from our Earthly vantage point. Li and researchers were able to infer the position and existence of a jet coming from the nucleus of the comet, which most likely marks the position of one of its rotational poles.

“We measured the rotational pole of the nucleus,” Li noted in a press release from the Planetary Science Institute. The pole indicates that only one side of the comet is being heating by the Sun on its way in until approximately one week before it reaches its closest point to the Sun.”

Could we be in for a “surge” of activity from ISON coming from around November 20th on?

Comet ISON as imaged from Aguadilla, (sp) Puerto Rico recently on october 6th. (Credit: Efrain Morales Rivera).
Comet ISON as imaged from Aguadilla, Puerto Rico recently on October 6th. (Credit: Efrain Morales Rivera).

Li also noted that the reddish color of the coma of ISON suggests an already active comet sublimating water ice grains as they move away from the nucleus. He also noted that time has been allocated to observe ISON using Hubble this week.

Next up, researcher Mathew Knight presented some encouraging news for ISON when it comes to surviving perihelion.

The findings were a result of numerical simulations carried out by Kevin Walsh and Knight, combined with a historical analysis of previous sun-grazing comets. Both suggest that comet nuclei smaller than 200 metres in diameter, with an average density or lower (for comets, that is) typically do not survive a close passage to the Sun.

Both researchers place the size of ISON’s nucleus in the range of 0.5 to 2 kilometres, comfortably above the 0.2 kilometre “shred limit” for its relative perihelion distance. ISON is not a technically Kreutz group sungrazer, though studies of the over 2,000 known Kreutz comets historically observed provide an interesting guideline for what might be in store for ISON. Four Kreutz comets, including C/2011 W3 Lovejoy and Comet C/1887 B1 partially survived perihelion to become “headless wonders,” while five, including Comet C/1965 S1 Ikeya-Seki — which ISON is often compared to — survived perihelion passage to become one of the great comets of the 20th century.

ISON will pass inside the Roche limit of the Sun, which is a distance of 2.4 million kilometres (for fluid bodies) and will be subject to temperatures approaching 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit on closest approach.

ISON is a first time visitor to the inner solar system. Discovered on September 21st, 2012 by Russian researchers Artyom Novichonok and Vitaly Nevsky participating in the International Scientific Optical Network, ISON will pass less than 1.2 million kilometres above the surface of the Sun on November 28th, 2013.

One interesting but little discussed factor highlighted in today’s press release was the retrograde versus prograde rotation of the cometary nucleus. A fast, prograde spin of an elongated nucleus may spell doom for ISON, as tidal forces will rip it apart. A retrograde rotator, however, is very likely to survive the encounter.

Thus far, there are no solid indications that ISON is indeed a retrograde rotator, although there are tantalizing hints that beg for further observations.

Li notes that it’s tough to infer a bias for comets like ISON to be retrograde over prograde rotators, as we’ve only got five historical comets to go by similar to ISON, and the breakdown is thus about 50/50 for and against.

ISON’s possible survival would validate both studies and their methods and give us more refined predictions for future comets.

“We’ve never discovered a sungrazer this far out,” Knight told Universe Today. “The rotation of ISON depends on the pole position (from Li’s study) and in theory, if we could get enough images, a proper morphology (for ISON) would emerge.”

Comet ISON imaged on October 5th from Long Beach, California. (Credit: Thad Szabo @AstroThad).
Comet ISON imaged on October 5th from Long Beach, California. (Credit: Thad Szabo @AstroThad).

The implications of this analysis is certainly good news for observers. If ISON survives perihelion, we would then have a brilliant dawn Christmas comet unfurling its tail off to the northeast in early December.

Of course, these findings are contrary to early cries of its demise, including the paper out of the Institute of Physics that has been circulating touting “The Impending Demise of ISON”. Read Universe Today editor Nancy Atkinson’s excellent synopsis on that, it’s a tale that just won’t seem to die.

And we’ve also done our skeptic’s duty of thoroughly debunking the mounting ISON lunacy, including its status as the harbinger for the “end of the world of the week,” as well as its inability to fulfill prophecy. But if we get a surge in ISON next month as researchers suggest, we fully expect the accompanying hype to crest as well.

The most recent observations put ISON at about +10th magnitude as it currently crosses the constellation Leo, near Mars and Regulus in the morning sky. We recently did an observing post tracking its plunge to perihelion in late November, and we’ve been diligently hunting for ISON with binoculars every morning pre-dawn.

We’re glad to have some positive science to report on for ISON. Things are looking up for a fine show come early December!

-Read the PSI press release on  JianYang Li’s findings as well as the original paper on ISON’s survival prospects by Matthew Knight.

Comet ISON: A Viewing Guide from Now to Perihelion

Perhaps you’ve read the news. This Fall, the big ticket show is the approach of Comet C/2012 S1 ISON. The passage of this comet into the inner solar system has been the most anticipated apparition of a comet since Hale-Bopp in 1997.

Many backyard observers will get their first good look at Comet ISON in the coming month. If you want to see this comet for yourself, here’s everything you’ll need to know!

(Credit: HubbleSite.org/Go/ISON).
A composite image of Comet ISON as seen from the Hubble Space Telescope on April 30th, 2013. (Credit: HubbleSite.org/Go/ISON).

Discovered on September 21st, 2012 by Artyom-Kislovodsk and Vitaly Nevsky using the International Scientific Optical Network’s (ISON) 0.4 metre reflector, this comet has just passed out from behind the Sun from our Earthly vantage point this summer to once again become visible in the dawn sky.

Of course, there’s much speculation as to whether this will be the “comet of the century” shining as “bright as the Full Moon” near perihelion. We caught up with veteran comet observer John Bortle earlier this year to see what skywatchers might expect from this comet in late 2013. We’ve also chronicled the online wackiness of comets past and present as ISON makes its way into the pantheon as the most recently fashionable scapegoat for “the end of the world of the week…”

But now it’s time to look at the astronomical prospects for observing Comet ISON, and what you can expect leading up to perihelion on November 28th.

Comet ISON imaged by Efrain Morales on September 22nd. (Credit: Efrain Morales/Jaicoa Observatory, used with permission).
Comet ISON as recently imaged by Efrain Morales on September 22nd. (Credit: Efrain Morales/Jaicoa Observatory, used with permission).

Advanced amateur astronomers are already getting good images of Comet ISON, which currently shines at around +12th magnitude in the constellation Cancer. And although NASA’s Deep Impact/EPOXI mission is down for the count, plans are afoot for the Curiosity rover and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter to attempt imaging the comet when it makes its closest approach to the Red Planet on October 1st at 0.0724 Astronomical Units (A.U.) or 10,830,000 kilometres distant. If MSL is successful, it would be the first time that a comet has been observed from the surface of another world.

Currently, ISON sits about a magnitude below the projected light curve, (see below) but that isn’t all that unusual for a comet. Already, there’s been increasing talk of “ISON being a dud,” but as Universe Today’s Nancy Atkinson pointed out in a recent post, these assertions are still premature. The big question is what ISON will do leading up to perihelion, and if it will survive its passage 1.1 million kilometres above the surface of the Sun on November 28th to become a fine comet in the dawn skies in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

ISON is already starting to show a short, spikey tail in amateur images. Tsutomu Seki estimated it to be shining at about magnitude +11.1 on September 16th. Keep in mind, a caveat is in order when talking about the magnitudes of comets. Unlike stars, which are essentially a point source, the brightness of a comet is spread out over a large surface area. Thus, a comet may appear visually fainter than the quoted magnitude, much like a diffuse nebula. Although +6th magnitude is usually the limit for naked eye visibility, I’ll bet that most folks won’t pick up ISON with the unaided eye from typical suburban sites until it breaks +4th magnitude or so.

(Credit: NASA CIOC/Matthew Knight. used with permission).
The recent revised light curve projected for Comet ISON (Credit: NASA CIOC/Compiled by Matthew Knight of the Lowell Observatory).

The forward scattering of light also plays a key role in the predicted brightness of a comet. The November issue of Astronomy Magazine has a great article on this phenomenon. It’s interesting to note that ISON stacks up as a “9” on their accumulated point scale, right at the lower threshold of comet “greatness,” versus a 15 for sungrazing Comet C/1965 S1 Ikeya-Seki. Another famous “9” was Comet C/1996 B2 Hyakutake, which passed 0.1018 A.U. or 15.8 million kilometres from Earth on March 25, 1996.

ISON will pass 0.429 A.U. or 64.2 million kilometres from Earth the day after Christmas. Bruce Willis can stay home for this one.

Here is a blow-by-blow breakdown of some key dates to watch for as ISON makes its plunge into the inner solar system:

-September 25th: ISON crosses the border from the astronomical constellation of Cancer into Leo.

-September 27th: ISON passes 2 degrees north of the planet Mars.

The path of Comet ISON from October 1st to November 21st. The position of the Sun is shown on the final date. (Created by the Author using Starry Night Education software).
The path of Comet ISON from October 1st to November 21st. The position of the Sun is shown on the final date. (Created by the Author using Starry Night Education software).

-October 1st: The 12% illuminated waning crescent Moon passes 10 degrees south of Mars & ISON.

-Early October: ISON may break +10th magnitude and become visible with binoculars or a small telescope.

-October 4th: New Moon occurs. The Moon then exits the dawn sky, making for two weeks of prime viewing.

October 10th: ISON enters view of NASA’s STEREO/SECCHI HI-2A CAMERA:

Credit: NASA/ISON Observing campaign)
The path of ISON as it enters the view of STEREO. Credit: NASA/ISON Observing campaign)

-October 16th: ISON passes just 2 degrees NNE of the bright star Regulus, making a great “guidepost” to pin it down with binoculars.

-October 18th: The Full Moon occurs, after which the Moon enters the morning sky.

-October 26th: A great photo-op for astro-imagers occurs, as ISON passes within three degrees the Leo galaxy trio of M95, M96, & M105.

The position of Comet ISON on October 26th in Leo. (Created by the author in Stellarium).
The position of Comet ISON on October 26th in Leo near Mars and a trio of galaxies. (Created by the author in Stellarium).

-October 30th: The 17% illuminated Moon passes 6 degrees south of ISON.

-Early November: Comet ISON may make its naked eye debut for observers based at dark sky sites.

-November 3rd: A hybrid (annular-total) solar eclipse occurs, spanning the Atlantic and Central Africa. It may just be possible for well placed observers to catch sight of ISON in the daytime during totality, depending on how quickly it brightens up. The Moon reaching New phase also means that the next two weeks will be prime view time for ISON at dawn.

-November 5th: ISON crosses the border from the astronomical constellation of Leo into Virgo.

-November 7th: ISON passes less than a degree from the +3.6 magnitude star Zavijava (Beta Virginis).

-November 8th: ISON passes through the equinoctial point in Virgo around 16:00 EDT/20:00 UT, passing into the southern celestial hemisphere and south of the ecliptic.

-November 14th: ISON passes less than a degree from the 10th magnitude galaxy NGC 4697.

-November 17th: The Moon reaches Full, passing into the morning sky.

-November 18th: ISON passes just 0.38 degrees north of the bright star Spica.

-November 22nd: ISON crosses into the astronomical constellation of Libra.

-November 23rd: ISON sits 4.7 degrees SSW of the planet Mercury and 4.9 SSW of Saturn, respectively.

Looking east before dawn on the morning of November 23rd. (Created by the author using Starry Night Education software).
Looking east before dawn on the morning of November 23rd. Note comet 2P/Encke nearby! (Created by the author using Starry Night Education software).

-November 25th: ISON pays a visit to another famous comet, passing just 1.2 degrees south of short period comet 2P/Encke which may shine at +8th magnitude.

-November 27th: ISON enters the field of view of SOHO’s LASCO C3 coronagraph.

-November 28th: ISON reaches perihelion at ~18:00 PM EST/ 23:00 UT.

After that, all bets are off. The days leading up to perihelion will be tense ones, as ISON then rounds the Sun on a date with astronomical destiny. Will it join the ranks of the great comets of the past? Will it stay intact, or shatter in a spectacular fashion? Watch this space for ISON updates… we’ll be back in late November with our post-perihelion guide!

Be sure to also enjoy recently discovered Comet C/2013 R1 Lovejoy later the year.

Got ISON pics? Send ’em in to Universe Today!