2012

Comments for 2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal

3 Oct , 2008 by

Because of the enormous amount of comments to this 2012 article, I’ve had to move the comments to a separate thread, because the page was slowing down the server. You can continue commenting here.

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Fraser Cain is the publisher of Universe Today. He's also the co-host of Astronomy Cast with Dr. Pamela Gay.


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kam
Guest
kam
October 3, 2008 10:30 PM

poarity in men or animals change all the time without even noticing it without special instruments. WHY we thing in case of planet it will bring such calamity?? If we are aware such thing can happen we should be prapared for reversals in directions (specially in travel and flights) It has happened many times and it has happened in computer models and it will happen to us one day but WHY calamity??

Polaris93
Member
October 3, 2008 10:59 PM
The psychology involved in this sort of end-of-the-world enthusiasm intrigues me. The 2012 phenomenon isn’t unique. For at least 2000 years people have regularly calculated the time of the ending of the world, announced it to the public, collected a following, got them to sell or give away all their possessions, and led them out into the desert or up on a mountain to await The End. *Not once* have any of those predictions come true. And yet people do it over and over and over. And they simply refuse to listen to anything intended to refute the Prophecy of the End Time . . . until there they are, bereft, with only the clothes on their backs,… Read more »
Todd Sieling
Guest
October 3, 2008 5:28 PM

> So, do you think there will be a geomagnetic reversal event in 2012? I thought not.

I’ll think for myself, thanks.

I did like the explanation of what we do know about the magnetic field, it’s a great writeup. But in the end, chaotic only equals not knowing enough yet to make a good prediction. So if we don’t know why it changes, it needs as much faith to believe it won’t reverse in 2012 as it does to believe it will.

Kevin F.
Member
October 3, 2008 5:42 PM

Without GPS, our airliners will also plough into the ground…

Yeah, why do we bother training those pilots? grin

ahahahahah
Guest
ahahahahah
October 3, 2008 6:47 PM

naaahahahahahahaha, best statement ever! i say to the comment above me

Roger
Guest
Roger
October 3, 2008 7:49 PM
@Todd Sieling “chaotic only equals not knowing enough yet to make a good prediction. So if we don’t know why it changes, it needs as much faith to believe it won’t reverse in 2012 as it does to believe it will.” It’s probability, based on the evidence stated in the article, that makes it unlikely for geomagnetic reversal to happen in the next four years, or even the next 100,000. Faith has nothing to do with it. Of course, if you’d rather believe that an ancient civilization that used stone tools had figured it all out because they possessed cosmic secrets, or that some god has a special plan just for us, that would be faith. Misplaced faith,… Read more »
RL
Member
RL
October 3, 2008 8:06 PM

Soooo…..what you’re saying is that one day I’ll have to buy a new compass! Time to buy stock in companies that make compasses!

Great article. I didn’t expect doomsday but I have wondered what would happen when the polarity switched. Thanks.

ESA Exile
Member
ESA Exile
October 3, 2008 11:38 PM

Ah! The nutters are at it again.When they STOP, that’s when I’l start to worry!

Astro
Guest
October 4, 2008 2:02 AM

I hate everything about 2012, the prdictions and so on. Expecially the rumours about planet x, named Nibiru. You really need to wisit http://2012-chat.com. They’re saying many things about this year, and they really need someone like you. Who can teach them. i.e. They’re all saying that Jupiter, which you can se now, is Nibiru!
And the worse thing is, that they believe in it. So show this contribution to them, so they can get more wiser.

I love your blog! Greetings from Sweden!

Sasori
Guest
Sasori
October 4, 2008 2:04 AM

People should stop wasting their time reading doomsday scenarios and should start caring about how to save earth from global warming which has already shown its inpact on our daily lives.

snowgim
Guest
snowgim
October 4, 2008 2:51 AM

“most likely experience aurorae at all latitudes”

One geomagnetic reversal please smile

sail4evr
Member
sail4evr
October 4, 2008 3:16 AM
Looking at the chart showing Earths polarity reversals over the last 160 million years. Black = normal polarity, White = reversed polarity. From Lowrie (1997) and applying an eyeball test I would say without question that the trend for the last 130 million years has been to shorter periods of time before/between reversals. This would affect the probability IMHO of there being more likely a flip sooner rather than later. IMO comparing the current or most recent duration of the black or normal phase to its average duration over the last 25 million years would indicate that we are more likely to have a flip tomorrow than not because the extended duration of our current black cycle is… Read more »
Hans-Peter Dollhopf
Member
Hans-Peter Dollhopf
October 4, 2008 3:21 AM

Did doomsayers ever mention the disturbing influence of geomagnetic reversal on the global produktion of milk? smile

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: Magnetic alignment in grazing and resting cattle and deer, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2008/08/22/0803650105.abstract

“domestic cattle (n = 8,510 in 308 pastures) across the globe, and grazing and resting red and roe deer (n = 2,974 at 241 localities), align their body axes in roughly a north–south direction. Direct observations of roe deer revealed that animals orient their heads northward when grazing or resting.”

Irwin Weisberg
Guest
Irwin Weisberg
October 4, 2008 3:30 AM

I predict that 12/21/2012 will mean the end of fall!

Hans-Peter Dollhopf
Member
Hans-Peter Dollhopf
October 4, 2008 3:45 AM

Geomagnetic reversal will give migratory birds a lot of trouble:

Do Birds Use Magnetic Field to Plan Migration Routes?, news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/11/1102_TVbirdflite.html

“A new study suggests that birds use the Earth’s magnetic field to plan dining locations along their migration route. These culinary stopovers are critical to the success of the migration because, according to a second study, the fatter the bird, the more efficiently it is able to fly.”

sail4evr
Member
sail4evr
October 4, 2008 4:21 AM

Why would satellites be affected by a magnetic shift? I thought their orbit was dependent on gravity.

diatoms
Member
diatoms
October 4, 2008 5:43 AM

A really fascinating article. Is the prediction of the End of Days a global phenomenon or is it just another Judeo-Christian myth? In reply to Todd’s article I would like to point out that “…chaotic only equals not knowing enough yet to make a good prediction…” is not scientifically accurate. Chaotic systems, and this may well be a chaotic system, are not open to prediction. We can see trends and large manifestations of chaotic systems, for example the cloud bands and spots of Jupiter but we cannot predict with any certainty what will happen in six months from now no matter how much data we possess.

mrG
Guest
October 4, 2008 5:54 AM
Skepticism on these issues is very often misplaced; it’s like the supposed conflict between religion and natural philosophy, it so often makes the mistake of taking physical reality for psychological reality and then jumps up and down saying that apples are not oranges and therefore oranges cannot exist! Here’s the thing: People are born ignorant, and so they make mistakes in their naturally scientific exploration of their world since infancy. Eventually they come to some point where their internal model of the world (psychology) has trouble with the external constraints (natural philosophy) and they realize they need to change, but, as evolution would have it, people are highly reluctant to disbelieve their psychology and are thus resistant to… Read more »
mrG
Guest
October 4, 2008 6:07 AM
an addendum thought for the Scientists out there: Knowing what we do about the psychology of change-work and the pressing need for new paradigms of cultural behaviour, is it ETHICAL for us to be openly and publicly critical of their myths? I read once that Galileo was put under a gentle house arrest by his good friend (the Pope) not for reasons of scientific heresy, but because of a fear his heliocentric and atomic-particle theories would undermine popular myths during a particularly unstable political time. He was never told to stop his studies or to stop writing, only to stop telling everyday people about his findings. If the Pope truly thought Galileo was ‘evil’, wouldn’t he have just… Read more »
Gary
Guest
Gary
October 4, 2008 6:27 AM

“Without GPS, our airliners will also plough into the ground…” — Only if we migrate to pilotless airliners. Inertial navigation systems have been around for decades and are not dependent on compass information (Earth’s magnetic field) or GPS.

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