The probability that Asteroid 2004 MN4 will strike the Earth on April 13, 2029 has actually been upgraded to a 1-in-43 chance now that more observations have been made. The asteroid has reached an uprecedented 4 on the Torino scale. Of course, this still means that there’s a 98% chance that it’ll completely miss the Earth. The space rock is 400 metres (1,300 feet) across, so a direct impact with our planet would cause a significant amount of damage on a regional level. Update: as of Dec. 28th, the probability has been significantly downgraded thanks to further observations. It’ll definitely miss.
2 Replies to “Asteroid Threat Upgraded to 1 in 45”
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If one were to go out to the asteroid 2001YB5, stop its spin, and, at 18h UT on 29 April 2018, apply a delta-vee of 83.660071 m/s in the direction of right ascension 15h 24m 21.8469s, declination +5.4807962 deg, its new orbit would cause the asteroid to intercept Earth on 6 January 2020 at 18h 28m 39.5s UT.
Earth’s orbital elements.
a = 1.0000001124 au
e = 0.0167102192
i = 0
L = 0
w = 103.078101 degrees
T = JD 2454468.667
2001YB5’s present orbital elements.
a = 2.349557178 au
e = 0.8624274715
i = 5.490700414 degrees
L = 109.345120942 degrees
w = 114.247445263 degrees
T = JD 2453637.5777
2001YB5’s new orbital elements, after an adjustment by the Space Terrorists.
a = 2.349279050 au
e = 0.8626144801
i = 5.614087924 degrees
L = 106.665251678 degrees
w = 116.777537385 degrees
T = JD 2457580.6371
Look, It won’tCOLLIDE with us anyway, So stop worrying Fools.