Posted August 21, 2001
Dennis Tito's visit to the International Space Station in April seemed to some to herald a new era of space tourism, but who will follow him into space, and when? Professor Geoffrey Crouch, Chair of Tourism Marketing at La Trobe University in Australia, says that public space travel won't become a reality unless it is underpinned by extensive and rigorous research into market demand. He talks to Jennifer Laing about his background, interest in space and views on the future of space tourism and the research challenges it poses.
Watching the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey recently elicited a few laughs from friends as they watched people flying into space on modified Pan Am space 'jets', served by flight attendants in Velcro soled shoes. Removing the 'giggle factor' from space tourism is one of the biggest challenges for the fledgling industry, says Professor Geoffrey Crouch, and credible and thorough market research will be needed before commercial investors will be prepared to put serious money behind it.
"When you read the growing body of literature on the topic, and speak to some of the key players, you find that market research is now clearly recognized as one of the most important needs at the moment in the further development of the space tourism industry. Wall Street won't put money into a dream. They need strong commercial reasons for investing money in space tourism ventures."
Professor Crouch, Chair of Tourism Marketing at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia, has a solid international reputation in tourism marketing research. He has published or presented 70 academic papers, and served on the Editorial Review Boards of prestigious journals such as the Journal of Travel Research, Tourism Analysis (Co-Editor-in-Chief) and Tourism Management. Prior to joining La Trobe University, Professor Crouch spent six years at the World Tourism Education and Research Centre, Faculty of Management, at the University of Calgary in Canada. He is also the Organizing Chair of the Third Symposium on the Consumer Psychology of Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure, to be held in Melbourne in January 2003.
Crouch has always had a general interest in space, monitoring developments in space tourism since the early 1990's, and believes it is now a very credible and fertile ground for research. "Last November I decided the timing was right to organize a Special Panel Session on the future of space tourism for the Annual Travel and Tourism Research Association's Conference, addressing the theme this year of 2001: A Tourism Odyssey. I thought it was time that the proponents of space tourism and the mainstream travel and tourism industry started a dialogue, as few people in the tourism industry had any idea just how far things had progressed and how close we were to the birth of space tourism. The subsequent flight of Dennis Tito into space just prior to the conference, I think, shocked and delighted the industry sceptics." The panel he formed included Apollo 11 astronaut Dr. Buzz Aldrin, Chairman of ShareSpace Foundation and long-time advocate of space tourism, and Robert Haltermann of the U.S. Space Transportation Association (STA). The fourth panel member was Professor Valene Smith from California State University (Chico). Topics covered by the panel ranged from the practical issues of 'hosting' guests in space, to the ways in which space tourism could radically alter the whole future and cost of space transportation.
Professor Crouch spoke at the conference on Researching the Space Tourism Market and said that market development faced a number of "hurdles", one of the most significant of which was the need for solid research to underpin predictions and estimates. While some preliminary research studies have been carried out, and seem to support the view that there is a market for space tourism, they are not sufficient in themselves nor detailed enough given the "high financial stakes" involved in these kinds of enterprises.
As Professor Crouch said in his presentation to the Florida conference, "We might ask why public space travel is not already a reality. A century ago, two brothers in a bicycle shop were able to build the world's first powered aircraft. But it took an organization of thousands to put man on the moon. For public space travel to get off the ground, the cooperation of so many separate players will be required; governments and regulators, numerous industries (energy, tourism, insurance, finance, engineering, aviation etc.), and of course financial markets themselves. In order to gain the interest, participation and cooperation of so many disparate businesses, organizations and individuals, but particularly to convince capital markets, valid, reliable and convincing estimates of market demand are essential."
The adventure tourism market could be a good analogue for space tourism, says Crouch. There are a number of people around the world who are looking for greater thrills and the chance to put themselves to the test in a potentially dangerous situation. "The motivation for adventure evident in people like Steve Fossett, Richard Branson, and Dennis Tito; explorer-types like Antarctic trekkers or round-the-world solo yachtsmen; and thrill-seekers like mountain climbers, bungee jumpers, etc. demonstrate that a portion of the population is motivated enough to accept high risks and personal costs in order to achieve a personal dream or ambition. The early space tourism market is likely to be characterized by these sorts of people."
Tito is reported to have paid US$20 million for the right to fly to the Space Station on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft, and spend time in orbit. There are other wealthy people around, Crouch believes, who would pay this sort of figure to go into space. He notes that South African millionaire Mark Shuttleworth and Titanic director James Cameron have both indicated a desire to be 'space tourists' and would appear to have the level of income required to make this dream a reality.
Determinants of demand other than price also need to be considered. For example, Professor Crouch speculates, demand for space tourism could be a function of factors such as "the duration of the journey or conditions aboard the spacecraft, as well as the perceived level of safety. Would tourists be prepared to 'trade off' some of these 'product attributes' against others?" Factors affecting the structure of the market, such as the level of competition, are also relevant when considering likely future scenarios. Most of the research carried out will, Crouch feels, be "necessarily limited to surveys of 'stated' preference or choice," given the fact that only one human being, Dennis =ito, can currently lay claim to the title of 'space tourist'. Choice modelling techniques, pioneered by the current recipients of the Nobel Prize for economics, could be a suitable method for obtaining this data, and would provide rigour and credibility. This is an area of research which Professor Crouch intends to pursue in the near future.
Professor Crouch's academic credentials and interest in space tourism research have not gone unnoticed overseas. Buzz Aldrin described Crouch's paper at the Travel and Tourism Research Association's conference as "one of the best" he has read on the subject of space tourism research, and Crouch was subsequently invited to serve on the Market Development and Enabling Committee of the STA. The STA also asked him to participate in a conference in June presented by their Space Travel and Tourism Division, called Going Public 2001: Moving Towards the Development of a Large Space Travel and Tourism Business in Washington D.C. The STA are keen, Professor Crouch feels, "to foster links and relationships between the space industry and the 'traditional' tourism and travel industries."
While in Washington, Professor Crouch attended the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics that met on June 26 for a hearing on space tourism. The meeting heard from witnesses, Mr. Dennis Tito, Dr. Buzz Aldrin, Mr. Mike Hawes (Deputy NASA Associate Administrator for the Space Station), and Mr. Rick Tumlinson (President, Space Frontier Foundation). The hearing centered on Tito's experience as the first 'space tourist' to visit the International Space Station. Tito said that he felt the Space Station could accommodate more people, and conceded that NASA had never debriefed him on his time in space. Arguments were advanced by others present that overruns on the cost of Station construction could be reduced by taking paying 'guests' into space. Professor Crouch says that it was pointed out that many Shuttle flights go into space with empty seats. One of the Congressmen on the committee, Nic Lampson, announced that he would be introducing a Bill into the House of Representatives to facilitate the development of space tourism in the US. The Bill, known as the Space Tourism Promotion Act (2001), was subsequently introduced to the House on July 10. Professor Crouch regards this as an important "sign" that the U.S. Government is finally taking space tourism "seriously."
"The Space Tourism Promotion Act, if it is passed, will provide for loan guarantees and capital gains exclusions for companies wishing to develop space tourism. The U.S. Department of Commerce (Office of Space Commercialisation), according to the Bill, will also play a key role in fostering market development. Whether the Bill passes or not, it's a symbolic gesture which signals to investors and the industry that the U.S. Government no longer sees space tourism as 'fanciful'."
The recent announcement that NASA and the Russian space agency have drafted criteria for allowing more 'space tourists' to visit the International Space Station is an interesting and welcome development, says Professor Crouch. "Although NASA tried very hard to prevent Tito's trip, it now seems to realize, particularly after the grilling its Deputy Associate Administrator received at the House committee hearing on space tourism in June, that the development of space tourism is inevitable and that it can't afford to be seen as standing in its way." Indeed, there are many who argue that space tourism will in the long run help NASA by dramatically reducing the cost of space transportation and bringing commercial investment into space. "But it seems that NASA still can't quite allow itself to use the 'T' word as the draft agreement between NASA and the Russian Space Agency refers to 'space flight participants' rather than 'tourists'," notes Crouch.
Professor Crouch has had discussions with a number of the many organizations now interested in improved assessments of the market for space tourism, and is hopeful of collaborative partnerships emerging. He also sees potential opportunities for Australia both with respect to launch and landing facilities, as well as tourism management education, training, and research, given our long-standing interest and expertise in these areas. "We're held up in international tourism circles as a model for our many institutions and universities now running tourism degrees and programs."
Coming up with a working definition of 'space tourism' is going to be another interesting challenge. Professor Crouch says that people shouldn't just consider "the orbital and sub-orbital flights" as the sum total of the space tourism market.
"The media interest is largely focused on civilians going on spaceflights, but let's not forget that people have been participating in space-related tourism activities for years. The original purpose behind Captain Cook's voyage to the South Pacific, when he discovered the East Coast of Australia, was to make observations of heavenly bodies. Tourists regularly attend Shuttle and rocket launches at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and visit planetariums and space museums. In fact the Air and Space Museum at the Smithsonian in Washington is the most visited museum in the world. A company called LunarCorp is planning to place a robotic vehicle on the Moon, which would allow people on Earth to make a simulated 'trip' to the lunar surface. For some time now, the Russians have been taking tourists on MiG flights and zero-G flights aboard the Ilyushin-76 cosmonaut training aircraft. These are all examples of activities which can be validly captured under the banner of space tourism."
At heart, Geoffrey Crouch believes, people are fascinated by space, and being able to look down on Earth from space "is an imagined experience that generates passion and excitement in everyone." The rate of development of public space travel will however depend on many variables, including the central issue, 'Is there a market for space tourism?' As he says, "We have a market of one to work with at the moment - Dennis Tito. A great variety of market research needs to be carried out before we can say how many and what type of people will follow in his vapor-trail."
Jennifer Laing is a freelance space writer from Melbourne, Australia.