When Do You Think Humans Will Return to the Moon?

by Fraser Cain on August 25, 2011

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When will this happen again?


We’re conducting a completely informal, unscientific, off-the-cuff survey of Universe Today readers. When do you think that humans will return to the Moon?

Just give us your responses in the comments. We’re thinking of pulling your answers together to try and wrangle the zeitgeist about human space exploration.

About

Fraser Cain is the publisher of Universe Today. He's also the co-host of Astronomy Cast with Dr. Pamela Gay.

  • Bill Gawne

    By 2025. Not necessarily humans from the US of A.

  • Anonymous

    I wouldn’t discount the middle east completely. There is a lot of turmoil there right now, but if the unite in a few years, they could rise to rival China very quickly. I can envision a space race between China and the middle east.

    As far as private enterprise, is it fair to label them under one country? They are all international companies right? Does it count if a US company pays for the venture, but hires Chinese or Indians to actually make the trip?

  • . .

    Soon

  • Anonymous

    The next country on the moon will be China. The time frame wil be when they get there. The moon is far more important than going to Mars. We need to develop survival , building, and resource gathering techniques on the moon before we go to Mars.

    We know that live is out there somewhere and hopefully we or it fines us first. Today we need to develop ways to save this planet, which I have some doubt about mankind accomplishing that goal. However, let us remain positive.

  • Sam Reid

    I’m 17 and I doubt it in my lifetime. Maybe sometime around 2050-2070 when there is actual overpopulation/food shortages and governments start to realize how pertinent space exploration really is. I think there will be robots mining the moon/asteroids before humans return to build a base on the moon/mars.

  • Debi-Lee Wilkinson

    The OpenLuna Foundation is aiming for sooner rather than later by optimizing mission architecture and using sponsorship and entertainment revenue to fund the missions. We will count year zero when we have $5 Million dollars and from there 7 to 10 years.

  • Ed Sweet

    I think humans will return to the moon between 2038 and 2056. Probably Americans, launched by a private group that is sort of a successor to NASA’s manned spaceflight effort. Russians will follow shortly thereafter. There will already be a robotic infrastructure in place on the moon when they land.

  • Ed Sweet

    My rationale for America in 2038 to 2056:

    1.) Pulled it out of my hat, and it sounded good and plausible.

    2.) America is still the only truly “global” superpower, and will remain the only one for the forseeable future (see Stratfor). American history (and history in general) follows a pattern of Rout-Rally-Rout-Rally…we’re in a Rout right now (last big Rout was the Great Depression, and we had a mini-Rout in the ’70′s), and the next Rally will have a lot of momentum.

    If the next “Rally” does not come, (in America or elsewhere like Russia or China…Russia might be a better prospect in the long run, more self-sufficient in resources), then it will be centuries before humans return to the moon (look up the term “ecotechnic” for longer-term, sustainable, relatively advanced societies, after the fossil fuels have run out).

    But I think people will…either in the next generation, or in the very distant future. I do not think humans will become extinct for a very long time, even if we remain confined to Earth.

  • Ed Sweet

    My rationale for America in 2038 to 2056:

    1.) Pulled it out of my hat, and it sounded good and plausible.

    2.) America is still the only truly “global” superpower, and will remain the only one for the forseeable future (see Stratfor). American history (and history in general) follows a pattern of Rout-Rally-Rout-Rally…we’re in a Rout right now (last big Rout was the Great Depression, and we had a mini-Rout in the ’70′s), and the next Rally will have a lot of momentum.

    If the next “Rally” does not come, (in America or elsewhere like Russia or China…Russia might be a better prospect in the long run, more self-sufficient in resources), then it will be centuries before humans return to the moon (look up the term “ecotechnic” for longer-term, sustainable, relatively advanced societies, after the fossil fuels have run out).

    But I think people will…either in the next generation, or in the very distant future. I do not think humans will become extinct for a very long time, even if we remain confined to Earth.

  • http://www.facebook.com/PaulGGraham Paul Graham

    OpenLuna will return people to the moon in five to seven years.

  • Rob Hemmings

    2029, on my 70th birthday, briefly bringing back the vision of the future I was given when I was 10 and which has been steadily corroded by idiot politicians ever since!

  • Ed Sweet

    To clarify the dates – the first landing with people will be between 2038 and 2056, and the moon will be occupied most of the time thereafter, albeit by only a few people for the first decades. In other words, once people return, they will stay. Only a few people for a long time, but people nonetheless.

  • Torbjörn Larsson

    China seems to be doing what they plan, and they plan to go back on manned round trips ~ 2020 and manned landings 2025-2030.

    US will not go back for manned landing (not necessary, only a time & resource waste for NEO and Mars missions). But seems wisely vote for manned round trips in preparation for NEOs. The NASA SLS plan have a manned round trip ~ 2020.

    Then we have the commercial sector, with announced tourist round trips already, and a vested societal interest in Moon trips, However, markets are notoriously unpredictable.

  • Torbjörn Larsson

    China seems to be doing what they plan, and they plan to go back on manned round trips ~ 2020 and manned landings 2025-2030.

    US will not go back for manned landing (not necessary, only a time & resource waste for NEO and Mars missions). But seems wisely vote for manned round trips in preparation for NEOs. The NASA SLS plan have a manned round trip ~ 2020.

    Then we have the commercial sector, with announced tourist round trips already, and a vested societal interest in Moon trips, However, markets are notoriously unpredictable.

  • adamn rat

    Sad. It seems we are not going anywhere, except maybe for a quick joyride or two.
    Been there done that? Damn, that mentality wound never have got on a ship to discover the Americas in the first place.
    No Profit? that is the reason i no longer have faith that it will be the US, except for maybe a dying puff of bravado if someone else manages to get there.
    What worries me is – if the Americans let it slip, it will be china who gets there, and we see how they treat things like the Internet,- i can see them fencing off the US flag, and saying “thats your 100 sqr meters (oh thats right American, make it 100 sqr feet). All over.
    Also – insurance civilization – I know if you grow bacteria in a petri dish, growth is fairly exponential, right up to the point where all the resources are used up, then everything collapses, very quickly.
    Just cos we been to the moon, don’t mean we shouldn’t go back, and sending people to the moon teaches us about habitat construction & unforeseen requirements, and its a bit easier to evac the crew from the moon than from mars.
    There is water there, and other useful matter. I don’t know how good an idea it is to fire billions of tons of metal out into space, decreasing the earths mass over time, but a lunar base allows to-ing and fro-ing from NEO’s, matter better sent off on missions than blundering around our orbit. You don’t learn to climb trees by strapping a belt to your feet and attempting to scale the really big ones – you start with a test climb on something lower with a few branches, and use what you learn to help climb the big smooth tree.
    Robots? yea love em, and keep em coming, they have their niche and fill it well. But sitting in a control room on earth, directing the Titan mine will teach us bugger all, and so far ALL discoveries have been made because someone had a look and said … “Oh”, when AI can do that, we will have already melded with it, and be flying our bodies to distant suns.
    We have used up the easily available resources. If society undergoes a full collapse and we lose our current level of technology (not just electric) the future generations wont be able to reach the coal, or gold, or copper. If it all falls over now, it is ovar. This is our last chance people – no try again in 40 000 yrs.

  • http://twitter.com/nasaman58 Kirby Runyon

    2015: humans around the Moon in a Soyuz capsule (two tourists each paying $150M, 1 Russian cosmonaut getting paid his normal salary) on a free-return trajectory (think Apollo 13 but with oxygen tanks in-tact)
    Early 2020s: American boot prints on the Moon thanks to Elon Musk.

  • Shardul juyal

    moon does not serve a great purpose anymore.

    i think the next time we go to moon would be to collect materials to create a Space station in upper the earth orbit

  • Anonymous

    In terms of actual boots on the ground (not just manned spacecraft flying around the moon):
    China first in the late 2020s
    Possibly a US/international test mission around 2030 before a trip to Mars
    Commercial visits in the 2030s (after suborbital in early 2010s, orbital in late 2010s, and Earth space stations and flights around the moon in the 2020s)

  • HiEverybody

    In the next five years

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