Comments on: Scientists Predict Earth-Like Habitable Exoplanet Will Be Found in 2011

By: Drunk Vegan

Drunk Vegan — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 06:14:06 +0000

@DWDECLARE:

Something tells me that the harsh and economical realities of life in space during the voyage, and then on the planet itself once the colony was founded, would preclude the “pollute, destroy, and discard” philosophy practiced by most Earthlings. Recycling would practically be something to be worshiped aboard a starship and on an exoplanet colony.

Think of it like Japan before globalization happened – isolation combined with limited resources leads to smaller things uses more efficiently – or not, at your own peril.

By: Lawrence B. Crowell

Lawrence B. Crowell — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 19:38:11 +0000

I wrote a book on the physics of sending probes to nearby stars. It should be possible to send a probe within 25 light years with a gamma < 1.2, and out to maybe 50 light years with a gamma ~ 2. In the last case it would take about 100 years to get a signal back.

By: Torbjorn Larsson OM

Torbjorn Larsson OM — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 15:50:26 +0000

I don’t know what you are going to do (but how will you get there?), but I assume the rest of us will be inspired by knowing that we aren’t alone, along outstanding question, and by more input on habitability and abiogenesis areas.

By: dwdeclare

dwdeclare — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 13:20:44 +0000

so what are we going to do? find this planet, go there, and pollute & destroy it in the same way we are this one?!

By: Torbjorn Larsson OM

Torbjorn Larsson OM — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:51:30 +0000

rRenoor makes a valid point, but it is already answered by Jon. The next step is to look for atmospheres in major chemical imbalance due to life metabolism.

By: Lawrence B. Crowell

Lawrence B. Crowell — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 02:13:19 +0000

Renoor makes a valid point. A planet may be similar to Earth, but if is gravitationally pulled over millions of years to different orbits due to gas giants might not have life.

By: Astrofiend

Astrofiend — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 01:26:45 +0000

“Perhaps I’m missing something, but if there is a 66 percent probability of discovering an earth sized exoplanet by 2013 and a 75 percent probability by 2020, how are they arriving at a discovery by 2011?”

Say you repeated this experiment many times – looking for an exoplanet with the same characteristics of Earth, with the same probability of finding it in a given time frame as calculated in the article for each experiment. Then May 2011 would be when they would find the planet on average. There would be a 50% chance of finding it before that date in any of the experiments (it is the median date for discovery) and a 50% chance for finding it sometime after that date. Therefore, you could expect that it would be found at that date on average in any given experiment – i.e. our observations.

By: Uncle Fred

Uncle Fred — Thu, 16 Sep 2010 00:17:42 +0000

Very nice. Oddly this is about the time I have wagered a bet with someone on the timing of such news (spring 2011 – late 2012) (he believes none exist lol).

Easy money coming my way soon…

By: William928

William928 — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 23:33:16 +0000

Perhaps I’m missing something, but if there is a 66 percent probability of discovering an earth sized exoplanet by 2013 and a 75 percent probability by 2020, how are they arriving at a discovery by 2011? Also, a small nitpick. I believe we’re closer to discovering an earth- sized, rather than an earth-like body. AFAIU, we’re much more adept at calculating mass than atmosphere at this point. Nonetheless, exciting news. With the current rate of discovery and advancing technology, it shouldn’t be long before we’re able to make a really earthshattering(no pun intended) discovery.

By: Jon Hanford

Jon Hanford — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 21:27:16 +0000

“sooo, first habitable planet – CHECK
what will be next?”

ummm, first inhabited planet!