World Needs to Aim for Near-Zero Carbon Emissions
Written by Fraser Cain
If we really want to combat climate change, how much carbon can we reasonably generate? How much will still push temperatures up? The current presidential candidates are all calling for serious carbon reductions over the next 40 years, but according to researchers at the Carnegie Institution for Science, it's not enough. To really stabilize our planet's climate, we need to get away from carbon forever.
In a recent article, published in latest issue of Geophysical Research Letters, climate scientists used a detailed Earth system model to simulate what might happen to the Earth's climate at various levels of carbon emissions.
What's the most carbon you can generate and not warm the planet?
"Most scientific and policy discussions about avoiding climate change have centered on what emissions would be needed to stabilize greenhouse gases in the atmosphere," said Ken Caldeira. "But stabilizing greenhouse gases does not equate to a stable climate. We studied what emissions would be needed to stabilize climate in the foreseeable future."
They ran various scenarios through the climate model, each time reducing the amount of carbon emissions. Even at the lowest levels, there was an increment of warming. In other words, until humans generate next to zero carbon emissions, there will be increased warming. There's no amount that the planet can absorb on a regular basis.
Once the carbon emissions in the simulation hit zero, the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere finally started to drop, getting absorbed into various carbon sinks such as the oceans and land vegetation. Even so, global temperatures remained high for at least 500 years after the end of carbon emissions.
The big worry are the climate tipping points. These are temperatures that might cause runaway processes that can't be stopped, such as the melting of the Arctic sea ice. If the world hits some point of severe climate instability, people might need to cut their carbon emissions to the absolute minimum.
And according to this research, that's essentially zero.
Although eliminating carbon dioxide emissions seems like a radical idea, the researchers see it as a reasonable goal.
"It is just not that hard to solve the technological challenges. We can develop and deploy wind turbines, electric cars, and so on, and live well without damaging the environment. The future can be better than the present, but we have to take steps to start kicking the CO2 habit now, so we won't need to go cold turkey later."
Original Source: CIS News Release
Filed under: Environment
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:20 am
For me, news about the planet is incredibly relevant to a site like Universe Today. I'm really glad Fraser includes this news. It's amazing to me that some other readers don't see knowledge about our existence on Planet Earth as an inherant and central part of the study of the Universe.
Of all the planets and places in the Universe we have to study, the place we have by far the best opportunity to know and learn from is right here. More imporantly this is the ONLY place right now we have to exist and thrive on. Whether or now humanity will be successful enough to be able to colonise other planets in the future in unknown. How can we theorise about that before knowing about, and getting involved with our ongoing colonisation and existence on this here planet?
I live in Japan, and EVERYONE here - companies, local and national government, and normal citizens, are very concerned about the environment and what's happening around the planet. The recycle rigorously, but also think rigorously, which is exactly what the naysayers are not doing, I cannot help but feel.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:06 am
Apparently the current US presidential candidates have agreed that whoever gets into power beginning 2009, they will aim to build giant space ships and fill them with 'naysayers' and then eject them into space to fend for themselves …. on another planet if they can find one.
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:45 am
I won't say anything about climate's change . I'm focusing in protecting the inviroment where I live in. I don't know how much it could help for today , but every little thing I do is very important to tomorrow.